Idatha-eqhutshwa ngedatha madness izibikezeli | Kubheke kwisayensi yedatha

Ubuhlanya bungalindelekiisivunguvungu esiphelele lapho izintandokazi ziyawa futhi ngaphansi kwama-underdogs akhuphukele ukwenza okungenakwenzeka. Njalo ngoMashi, amaqembu e-basketball e-basketball wasekolishi angama-64 no-64 no-64 alwa nenkazimulo, kuyilapho izigidi zabalandeli, abahlaziyi, kanye nezimakethe zokubheja ziyahlwitha ukubikezela imiphumela. Kepha izingqinamba zokukhetha ubakaki ophelele? 1 ku-9.2 Quirillion (izigidigidi eziyi-9 zezigidi). Noma ngabe uchwepheshe we-basketball, amathuba akho athuthuka kancane, mhlawumbe 1 ngemali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-120. Kuwo wonke umlando walo mqhudelwano, akekho noyedwa owake wawuthola ilungelo le-100%, irekhodi liyimidlalo engu-49 kuze kube yiphutha lokuqala. Lapho isimemo sechibi lokuhlanya elihlanya le-March Madness lifike ebhokisini lami lokungenayo, ngazizwa ngilahlekile ngokuphelele. Njengomuntu waseDashi ohlala e-US, ngangingazi ukuthi amaqembu angubani futhi kwadingeka enze inkambo yokuphahlazeka yokuthi umqhudelwano wawusebenza kanjani. Kepha kunento eyodwa engiyaziyo: ukufaka amakhodi.

Ukuthola idatha efanele

Imithombo ehlukene inikela ngezindlela ezahlukahlukene zokulinganisa amandla eqembu, ngalinye linezindlela zalo. Eminye yemithombo esetshenziswa kakhulu yiyo; Izilinganiso ze-KENPOM, ukubikezela kuka-Nate Silver's Fivertytytyight, izibalo ze-NCAA nezibalo zeqembu, noma ama-Vegas angd kanye nezimakethe zokubheja. Lesi sakamuva singukubikezela okuningana komdlalo ngoba kusiza imizwa eminingi ehlukile kungaba ngumphakathi noma ochwepheshe.

Elinye lale mithombo linamandla nobuthakathaka, ezinye zisinda ngezindlela zezibalo futhi zihlanganisa nemithombo ehlukahlukene yedatha, isib. Isiliva, kanti abanye basebenzisa imininingwane yesizini eluhlaza kanye nemikhuba yomlando. Ukuqonda lo mehluko phakathi kwemithombo kubalulekile lapho unquma ukuthi iziphi izinombolo ezizothembela ekubikezelweni kwakho kubakaki.

Ngaphambi kokuntywila ema-metric asemqoka, kubalulekile ukwamukela umkhawulo oyisisekelo: ezweni elifanelekile, imodeli eyenziwe ngokugcwele izofaka izibalo zomdlalo ngamunye kusuka esikhathini esedlule, idatha yokusebenza komdlali kanye nezitayela zomlando. Ngeshwa, angikwazi ukufinyelela kuleli zinga ledatha ye-granular, kanye ne-seconly ngoba lokhu kumane kuyiphrojekthi emnandi engingafuni ukwenza izinto zibe nzima ngokwengeziwe. Esikhundleni salokho, kwadingeka ngithembele ebuchosheni bami abasebenzisa ama-proxies asetshenzisiwe ngokususelwa kudatha ye-KenPom Ranking. Umbuzo omkhulu uhlala: Le modeli izokwenza kahle kanjani? Anginazo izimangalo zokuthi kuzokuhle. Eqinisweni, okuwukuphela kweqiniso ngoMashi Madness kuyinto Kuzoba okungalungile. Kepha okungenani, le modeli ihlinzeka ngendlela ehlelekile, eqhutshwa idatha yokwenza izinqumo ezingcono, noma ngabe ulwazi lwami olulinganiselwe lwamaqembu e-basketball ekolishi.

Amamethrikhi asemqoka ukuvula ubakaki owinayo

Lapho kwakha imodeli yokuqagela kaMashi Madness, inselelo inquma ukuthi yiziphi izibalo ezibalulekile ngempela. Akuzona zonke izibalo ezibalulekile, ezinye zinikeza ukuqonda okujulile ekusebenzeni kweqembu, kanti ezinye zingukudideka kwesilinganiso nje. Ukulinganisa amandla okubikezela ngekulula, ngikhethe i-metric ebalulekile yamamethrikhi abamba amandla eqembu lonke, ukuguquguquka, namandla okuphakama. Lokhu kufaka izilinganiso zokusebenza kahle, inhlanhla, umfutho, i-tempo, nokuguquguquka, ngamunye udlala indima ebalulekile ekulingiseni imiphumela yomqhudelwano onengqondo.

Ukusebenza Kweqembu (Izilinganiso ze-Net nezilinganiso ezilungisiwe)

Isilinganiso seNet: Lo umehluko phakathi kweqembu Isilinganiso Esihlaselayo futhi kunjalo Isilinganiso sokuzivikela. Le metric inginikeza isilinganiso seqembu eliphelele i-Kenpom libala lokhu nge-computing nge-computer ngamaphuzu amangaki iqembu elikhipha abaphikisi bayo nge-100 impahla eyi-100.

Ukusebenza kahle okulungisiwe: Sine ezinye izilimi noma ukuncintisana kakhulu kunabanye ebengiba nomuzwa wokuthi ukuthembela ku-net kuphela bekungaphatha amaqembu ngokungafanele yize imincintiswano. Ngakho-ke ngisebenzisa ukuncintisana okumaphakathi kwenkomfa njengokulungiswa okuqinisekisa ukuthi amaqembu adlala izingqungquthela ezibuthakathaka futhi enza kahle ajeziswa ngenkathi amaqembu abhekene nanoma yize abaqhudelana bethola ibhonasi.

Uma ushesha uhambe, kunzima kangakanani

Ukuqonda kwami ​​lapha ukuthi amaqembu adlala ngejubane elisheshayo adala impahla ethe xaxa umdlalo ngamunye. Lokhu kunokungahambi kahle okungagcini nje ukukuqinisa inani lamathuba okuthola amaphuzu kodwa nangamaphutha. Ngakho-ke, le tempo ephakeme ingahle iholele ehlukile ekusebenzeni. Futhi ukuhlukahluka okuphezulu ekusebenzeni kwenza iqembu lithambekele ekubukeni okukhulu, izimo zomvuzo ophakeme, okuholela ekuwineni noma okushaqisayo. Lokhu kuvumela iqembu elisephepheni elidume ukuvala igebe umehluko wekhwalithi futhi linikeze abaphikisi babo isikhathi esinzima. Amaqembu ancike eziteshini zokudlala ezisezingeni eliphakeme.

Inhlaza factor

Akuwona wonke ama-win kanye nokulahleka okusho indaba ephelele. Amanye amaqembu ayaziwa ukuthi awina imidlalo eminingi kunalokho kufanele aqhathanise nokubikezela ukuthi idatha ingakunikeza. Ngenkathi abanye bengabucayi, isibonelo ukuthi balahlekelwa yimidlalo esondele kakhulu obekufanele iphenduke. Kodwa-ke, inhlanhla ingaba yi-metric enzima kakhulu ukwethemba ngempela, njengoba angizethembi nenhlanhla yami …

Ngakho-ke, ngisonga kanjani enhlalo enenhlanhla? Kususelwa kudatha yeKenpoms, inhlanhla ilinganisa umehluko phakathi kwerekhodi leqembu le-Win-Lost Real nerekhodi elilindelekile. Iqembu elinesilinganiso senhlanhla eliphakeme liwine imidlalo eminingi kunalokho obekulindelwe. Ngenkathi iqembu elinenhlanhla elibi kungenzeka ukuthi lisekupheleni okungalungile kwababeshayi be-buzzer, ngenkathi sebezodlala imidlalo emihle.

Umfutho: iziqongo eziphakeme kanye nemibhede ephansi

Emhlabeni ofanele, bengilinganisa umfutho ngokubheka imidlalo yeqembu eledlule, ekhomba amaqembu azwakele ukunqotshwa okuholela kulo mqhudelwano. Kepha ngaphandle kokufinyelela okuqondile kuleyo datha, bekufanele ngithole ubuciko futhi ngithole ummeleli.

Ngichaza umfutho ukuthi leli qembu likhulu kangakanani isihlobo esihlobene nesilinganiso seligi. Ngiqhathanisa isilinganiso seqembu leqembu kwiligi ephelele, amaqembu angenhla kwesilinganiso kubhekwa njengokuthola umfutho, kanti amaqembu awela ngaphansi kwesilinganiso ancishiswe.

Ukukhathala: Umqhudelwano ungumjaho hhayi i-sprint

Akuwona wonke ama-win anomphumela ofanayo emazingeni eqembu leqembu. Ukunqoba okuthe xaxa kokuphelelwa yisikhathi okwengeziwe ngokuphikisana nomphikisi oqinile kungaba nemiphumela emibi uma kuqhathaniswa nokuwina okulula okunamadijithi amabili. Ukuze ngilandise lokhu, ngihlenga isilinganiso seqembu ngento yokukhathala. Lesi sici sihlanganiswe ngamaqembu ajeziswe amaqembu abikezelwa ukuwina nge-slim kungenzeka.

Ngamafuphi, lezi zinto eziyisithupha yizithako eziphambili zaba ngamathuba uma iqembu liwina noma lilahlekelwe. Kepha ukwazi amamethrikhi kungxenye yendaba kuphela. Manje, ngidinga ikhodi engalingisa ngokugcwele lo mqhudelwano, futhi ngithemba ukuthi ngithola imiphumela enengqondo ukwedlula ukuncika kuma-mascot abukeka kahle (ngikwenza njengezinja!) Noma imibono esekwe imbewu.

I-algorithm: Ukulingisa ubuhlanya

Ngamafuphi, imodeli yami yeMashi Madness Model yakhelwe ebizwa ngokuthi iMonte Carlo ukumbumbuluzwa, lokhu kungukumbumbuluna okubangelwa amametriki aphenduke amamethrikhi we-basketball kumashumi ezinkulungwane zemiqhudelwano yokuthola imijikelezo elandelayo. Ngakho-ke angikhokhisa ubakaki oyedwa, amakhodi ami agijimisa amashumi ezinkulungwane zokumbumbuluzwa, isikhathi ngasinye lapho edlala lo mqhudelwano kusukela ekuqaleni ukuqeda ngaphansi kwezimo ezahlukahlukene.

Isinyathelo 1: Ukukhiqiza ama-Matchups

Ama-matchups okuqala akhiwe kusetshenziswa imbewu yomqhudelwano kusuka ku-NCAA, lapho kwadingeka ngiqiniseke ukuthi iBracket ngilingisa umphumela wokubhanqanisa kweqembu elifanele. Kulokhu ngisebenzisa imithetho yokuhlwanyela, amaqembu wokubhangqa njengezinkulungwane eziyi-1-vs. 16-imbewu, 8-imbewu vs. 9-imbewu, njalonjalo, njalonjalo emqhudelwaneni wangempela.

Isinyathelo 2: I-Computing win amathuba

Umdlalo ngamunye wenziwe kabusha usebenzisa umsebenzi wokuphelelwa amandla. Lokhu kusho ukuthi wonke umdlalo unendlela ethile yezinga eliyinkimbinkimbi lokungaqiniseki, esikhundleni sokumane uthande imbewu ephezulu ngaso sonke isikhathi. Amathuba angena ku-metric okhiye engichazile ngenhla: Amandla eqembu elilungisiwe, ukuguquguquka, isitayela sokudlala, imiphumela yokukhathala nenhlanhla. Okokugcina ngingeze i-generator ecasukile, ngalokhu ngidweba ngezikhathi ezithile kusuka ekusatshalalisweni okusindayo kwe-t, lokhu kusatshalaliswa kuhle ukulungisa imicimbi engavamile futhi kwenezela umsindo othe xaxa ezibikezelweni. Isici ngasinye sinesici saso sesisindo esithi engingasikhetha ukwenza imiphumela ethile ebaluleke kakhulu noma ebaluleke kakhulu futhi amathuba ahlanganisiwe ahlanganisiwe.

Isinyathelo 3: Ukuqhuba lo mqhudelwano

I-simulator bese igijima ngezindlela ezimbili, imodi yokuqala inganquma ubakaki okungenzeka kakhulu; Imodeli ilingisa umdlalo ngamunye emashumini ajikelezayo amahlandla amahlandla. Ngemuva komjikelezo ngamunye, kuhlanganisa isikhathi lapho iqembu liwina noma lilahlekelwe, futhi lihlanganisa nokuqiniseka; Isilinganiso phakathi kwenombolo yokuwina yenani lemidlalo edlaliwe, lokhu kuzobaluleka ukuthola ukuthi kungenzeka kube khona ama-Upsets. Abaphumelele baqhubekela phambili, futhi kwakhiwa ama-Matchups amasha futhi umjikelezo uyaphindwa emijikelezweni elandelayo.

Imodi yesibili ihlanganisa ukubikezela kwe-Champion, lokhu kusho ukuthi esikhundleni sokusebenzisa ama-game ngayinye amahlandla amahlandla, ngigijimisa amabakaki agcwele amashumi ezinkulungwane zezikhathi nangemva kwalokho ngibala ukuthi iqembu ngalinye likuthola kaningi kangakanani.

Isinyathelo 4: Ukuhlaziya Imiphumela

Ngemuva kwamashumi ezinkulungwane zemiqhudelwano esetshenzisiwe, imodeli ifaka imiphumela futhi iwushiyele ukuze ngihlaziye imiphumela:

• Ubuqhawe Ongaqondakali (Iqembu ngalinye likuwina kangaki konke)

• Amathuba okugcina amane (Ngubani owenza ijule kubakaki)

• Amathuba amakhulu aphathekayo (Yikuphi imbewu ephansi edonsa ukuwina okuthusayo)

Kunokuba uveze nje abawinile, imodeli ithola ukuthi yimaphi amaqembu kungacishe kwenzeke Ukuqhubekisela phambili noma unqobe ubuqhawe, ngithola iphesenti ngokubala ukungenelela kwabo kuqhathaniswa nenani lekhodi egijimayo.

Isibikezelo sesisekelo

Ngakho-ke ungene engxenyeni emnandi, ngiyikhetha kanjani ubuhlanya ngoMashi?

Ukuthweswa umqhele

Okwebampetha bami abaphezulu engikutholile; UDuke, Florida, u-Auburn noHouston. Uma kuqhathaniswa namahhovisi okubheja lokhu kubukeka kunengqondo kahle! Akumangazi ukuthi la maqembu amane nawo anezinkinga eziphakeme kakhulu zokwenza ama-Finar amane futhi imbewu ephezulu kakhulu eya kulo mqhudelwano. Uma ungenayo eyodwa yalezi ezine njengonqobayo … ungahle ube senkingeni!

Ukunquma ubakaki

Uma ngiba nebakaki eligcwele kanye nabapendayo ababengaba khona umsebenzi ukuqala nje. Ngubani ozoba yi-Upsets emikhulu kulo nyaka? Futhi yilapho izinto zithakazelisa khona, njengoba noma ngubani owake wabamba iqhaza kulezi zinselelo zabakaki uyazi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi ufuna ukubhala ebhange emidlalweni enomnqobi ocacile kakhulu, bese ukhomba imidlalo embalwa esondelene engase ihambe noma iyiphi indlela bese igoqa abafayo. Ngemuva kwakho konke, ubuhlanya ngoMashi abukona ukwenza konke ukukhetha, kumayelana nokuthatha izimangaliso ezifanele.

Khetha amasheya akho

Ngakho-ke, umbuzo oqine kakhulu uhlala, uyibona kanjani i-Cinderella lendaba yalonyaka? Njalo umqhudelwano, iqembu elinezithombo eziphansi liyesabisa insimu, kubakaki okukhohlakele yonke indawo. Kepha ngingabikezela ukuthi yimaphi amaqembu okungenzeka asuse ukucasuka?

Ukuthola amandla angaba khona, ngigxile kumaqembu amabili amaqembu:

1. Amaqembu abikezelwa ukushaya umphikisi wawo osezingeni eliphakeme

Amanye amaqembu kumodeli yami kulindeleke ukuthi awine umdlalo wawo ngenkathi umphikisi wawo enembewu ephakeme. Lokhu kungukuthathwa kwe-slam-dunk kokucasulwa! Ukunikeza izibonelo ezithile ezaphuma ekulingiseni kwami ​​kokugcina;

Imephuli [5] vs colorado st. [12] -> Colorado St. [12]

Mississippi St. [8] vs baylor [9] -> i-babylor [9]

2. Ngabe umdlalo uboniswe ukusondela?

Lokhu kuyakhohlisa futhi kuzokwehlela enhlanhleni. Noma yimuphi umdlalo lapho imodeli inikeza khona i-underdog okungenani ithuba le-40% engilibona njengekhono lokucasuka. Isibonelo esithile esihle salokhu yi-Connecticut [8] vs Oklahoma [9] -> I-Connecticut [8] okuyinto ngempela ephonsa uhlamvu lwemali kumbumbulu wami. Yikuphi kwalawa ma-upsets angaba khona ukukhetha njenge-upsets yangempela … lokho kuphansi kwebhonasi lemali.

Ekupheleni kosuku, Mashi Madness uyachuma ezingxabanweni. Ungasebenzisa idatha, kungenzeka, kanye nokusebenza kwangaphambilini ukwenza okukhethwe ngobuhlakani, kepha kwesinye isikhathi ukwehla okukhulu kwehla ukuze kwehlele ize ngenhlanhla. Khetha ngokuhlakanipha …

Ukugoqa: engikufundile

Le projekthi ibiyinto ejulile ekutholeni i-oda ku-Chaos of March Madness, ehlanganisa ulwazi lwami lwesayensi yedatha ngokucabanga kwe-basketball yasekolishi. Benginokwakha okuningi kokuzijabulisa kwami, futhi uma kunento eyodwa engiyifundile, ukuthi awudingi ikhodi ukufaka amathuba okuba okungalungile. Ukungalungile kunikezwe i-100%. Umbuzo wangempela uthi: Ngabe awunaphutha yini kunawo wonke umuntu? Kunokungaqiniseki okuningi kangaka ukuthi angizange ngibalekele noma kungenzeki ukugwema. I-Upsets izokwenzeka, izindaba zeCinderella zizokwenzeka, futhi akukho modeli, zingabikezela ubuhlanya ngokuphelele.

Uma ufuna ukubheka ikhodi yami:

Izwi lokuqapha: Ikhodi engiye yathuthuka ibiyiphrojekthi nje emnandi yempelasonto, futhi lokhu kubhala kuhloselwe ukuba yizemfundo, hhayi izeluleko zezezimali. Ukubheja kwezemidlalo kuyingozi enkulu, futhi kanti idatha inganikeza ukuqonda, ayikwazi ukubikezela ikusasa. Ukubheja ngokunenhlonipho futhi ufune usizo uma uludinga. Shayela u-1-800-gangiller.

Ukwamukela: Ngenkathi ngibhala ikhodi yami, ngasebenzisa i-LLM Chatgtt, imininingwane esetshenziselwa ukwenza izibikezelo yakhokhelwa futhi yavela ePenpom.