Machine Learning

Isu Lebhizinisi Elizinzile nge-Data Analytics | ngu-Samir Saci | Jan, 2025

Kwesinye isihloko, ngethula imodeli esizoyisebenzisa ukukhombisa ubunkimbinkimbi balo msebenzi ngezimo ezimbili:

  • Isimo 1: umqondisi wakho wezezimali ufuna ukunciphisa izindleko zizonke
  • Isimo 2: amaqembu okusimama aphushela ku ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2

Imiphumela yemodeli izofaka izinkomba zezezimali nezokusebenza ukukhombisa umthelela wezimo kuma-KPI alandelwe umnyango ngamunye.

Umdwebo obonisa izindleko kanye nokusatshalaliswa komthelela kwezemvelo eduze kwe-supply chain. Izindleko zezimpahla ezithengisiwe zixhumene nezitolo, izindleko zokukhiqiza zixhumene nokukhiqiza, kanye nezindleko zempahla zixhumene nezimakethe zempahla nezimpahla. Imithelela yezemvelo ihlanganisa imikhondo yokukhiqiza kanye nempahla, ephethwe umnyango wokusimama.
Ama-KPI amaningi afaka iminyango eminingana — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)
  • Ukukhiqiza: Ukukhishwa kwe-CO2, ukusetshenziswa kwezinsiza kanye nezindleko ngeyunithi ngayinye
  • Logistics: izindleko zempahla kanye nokukhishwa kwegesi
  • Ukudayisa / Ukuthengisa: Izindleko Zempahla Ethengiswayo (COGS)

Njengoba sizobona ezimweni ezehlukene, isimo ngasinye singavuna eminye iminyango futhi sibe yingozi kweminye.

Ucabanga ukuthi umqondisi wezokusebenza, ocindezelwa ukuthi alethe ngesikhathi ngezindleko ezincane, ukwamukela ukuphazamiseka kochungechunge lwakhe lokusabalalisa ngesinyathelo esimeme esingahleliwe?

Idatha (inga) isisize ukuthi sithole ukuvumelana.

Isimo 1: Yehlisa Izindleko Zezimpahla Ezithengiswayo

Ngiphakamisa ukulungisa isisekelo ngesimo esinciphisa Izindleko Zempahla Ethengiswayo (COGS).

Imodeli ithole isethi elungile yezitshalo ukunciphisa le methrikhi ngokuvula izimboni ezine.

Izithonjana ezimele izitshalo ezikhiqizayo ezinosayizi namakhono ahlukahlukene, kusukela ezimbonini ezincane kuya ezikhungweni zezimboni ezinkulu. Isithonjana ngasinye sigqamisa umehluko wamandla kanye nokukhiqiza okungaba khona.
Inethiwekhi yokukhiqiza yeSimo 1 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)
  • Izimboni ezimbili eNdiya (okuphansi nokuphezulu) izohlinzeka ngo-100% wesidingo sasekhaya futhi isebenzise umthamo osele ezimakethe zaseJalimane, zase-USA naseJapane.
  • A umthamo owodwa ophezulu imboni e-Japan ezinikele ekuhlangabezaneni (ingxenye) nesidingo sasendaweni.
  • Ikhono eliphezulu ifektri eBrazil ngemakethe yayo futhi ithumele e-USA.
Umdwebo we-Sankey obonisa ukuhamba kwe-supply chain kusuka ezindaweni zokukhiqiza kuya ezimakethe. I-Japan, India, kanye ne-Brazil yokukhiqiza amayunithi ezimakethe ezimakethe zase-Japan, e-USA, eJalimane, e-Brazil nase-India, ngokugeleza okuhluka ngosayizi ukumela ukusatshalaliswa kwevolumu ngemakethe ngayinye.
Isixazululo 1 sokunciphisa izindleko — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)
  • Ukukhiqizwa Kwendawo: 10,850 Amayunithi/Inyanga
  • Ukuthekelisa Ukukhiqiza: 30,900 Amayunithi/Inyanga

Ngalo mkhondo ogxile ekuthekeni, sinenani eliphelele le 5.68 M€/ngenyangaokuhlanganisa ukukhiqiza nezokuthutha.

Ishadi lebha elistakiwe elibonisa izindleko zezimpahla ezithengiswayo (COGS) ngendawo yokukhiqiza. Ishadi lihlanganisa izindleko ezigxilile (eziluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) nezindleko eziguquguqukayo (ezibomvu). Izindleko eziphelele zehlulwe e-Japan (2.07 M€/ngenyanga), e-Brazil (1.42 M€/ngenyanga), nase-India (1.52 M€/ngenyanga), enenani eliphakeme kakhulu elingu-5.68 M€/ngenyanga.
Isamba Sezindleko Zokuhlukaniswa — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Izindaba ezinhle ukuthi isabelo semodeli silungile; zonke izimboni zisetshenziswa ngomthamo omkhulu.

Kuthiwani Ngezindleko Zempahla Ethengiswayo (COGS)?

Ishadi lebha elistakiwe elibonisa ukwehlukaniswa kwe-COGS ngokwemakethe, okugqamisa ezokuthutha (okuluhlaza), ukukhiqiza (okubomvu), nezindleko ezigxilile (okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka). I-Japan ine-COGS ephezulu kakhulu ku-4.12 € / iyunithi, ilandelwa yi-Germany ne-USA, kuyilapho i-Brazil ne-India inenani eliphansi kakhulu ku-80 kanye ne-50 € / iyunithi ngokulandelanayo.
Ukuhlukaniswa kwe-COGS Kwesimo 1 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Ngaphandle kwemakethe yase-Brazilian, izindleko zezimpahla ezithengiswayo zicishe zihambisane namandla okuthenga endawo.

Esinye isinyathelo kungaba ukwanda Amandla okukhiqiza aseNdiya noma ukunciphisa Izindleko zefekthri yaseBrazil.

Ngokombono wezindleko, kubonakala kuphelele. Kodwa ingabe kuyisivumelwano esihle sethimba lokusimama?

Umnyango wezokusimama uphakamisa isixwayiso njenge Ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 kuyaqhuma.

Sine 5,882 (Amathani CO2eq) kokukhishwa kwe Amayunithi angama-48,950 akhiqiziwe.

Ishadi lebha elibonisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 ngendawo yemakethe nomthombo. Imakethe yase-USA inenani eliphakeme kakhulu elikhishwayo (amathani angu-4,980 CO2eq), ezokuthutha zinikela ngamathani angu-3,870 nokukhiqiza amathani angu-1,110. Ukukhishwa kwegesi eBrazil, eJalimane, eNdiya, naseJapan kuphansi kakhulu, kanti iBrazil iku-55 tons CO2eq
I-Emissions ngeMakethe ngayinye – (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Okuningi kwalokhu kukhishwa kubangelwa ukuthutha kusuka ezimbonini kuya emakethe yase-US.

Abaphathi abaphezulu baphusha ukuphakamisa uguquko lwenethiwekhi ukuze ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ngo-30%.

Ungaba yini umthelela ekukhiqizeni, ekuphatheni nasekuthengiseni?

Isimo sesi-2: Ukwenziwa Kwasendaweni Kokukhiqiza

Sishintsha umsebenzi wenhloso yemodeli ube ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2.

Izithonjana ezibonisa izinhlobonhlobo zokucushwa kwesizinda sokukhiqiza, ezimele izimboni ezisezingeni eliphansi nezinamandla amakhulu. Isithombe siqhathanisa izinhlobo zezitshalo ezihlukene ngokusekelwe nezici zazo zemvelo nokusebenza.
Inethiwekhi yokukhiqiza yeSimo sesi-2 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Njengoba ezokuthutha zingumshayeli omkhulu wokukhishwa kwe-CO2, imodeli ihlongoza ukuvulwa izimboni eziyisikhombisa ku ukwandisa ukugcwaliseka kwendawo.

Umdwebo we-Sankey obonisa ukukhiqizwa nokugeleza kwemakethe kwezindawo ezahlukene. I-USA, Germany, Japan, Brazil, kanye ne-India ikhonjiswa njengendawo yokukhiqiza exhunywe nezimakethe zazo noma ezithumela ngaphandle ezinamayunithi amavolumu ahlukahlukene amelwe ububanzi bokugeleza.
I-Supply Chain Iyageleza Yesimo 2 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)
  • Izimboni ezimbili ezisezingeni eliphansi e-India kanye neBrazil bagcwalise izimakethe zabo zendawo kuphela.
  • A umthamo owodwa ophezulu ifektri eJalimane isetshenziselwa imakethe yendawo futhi ithunyelwa e-USA.
  • Sine amapheya amabili ezitshalo ezisezingeni eliphansi nezisezingeni eliphezulu e-Japan nase-USA ezinikele ezimakethe zendawo.

Ukusuka umbono womnyango wezokukhiqizalokhu kusetha akusekude nokulunga.

Sinezitshalo ezine zamandla aphansi e-India naseBrazil ezikhona basebenzise indlela engaphansi kwamandla abo.

Ishadi lebha eliqhathanisa izindleko eziguquguqukayo nezigxilile ngendawo yokukhiqiza (i-USA, Germany, Japan, Brazil, ne-India). Izindleko eziphelele ziboniswa ngokugqamile, okugqamisa ukuthi izindleko ezigxilile neziguquguqukayo zifaka kanjani kuzo zonke izindleko zokukhiqiza.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwezindleko — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Ngakho-ke, izindleko ezingaguquki ziphindeke ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili, okuholela kubhajethi isiyonke 8.7 M€/ngenyanga (uma kuqhathaniswa no-5.68 M€/ngenyanga kuSimo 1).

Ingabe sesifinyelele umgomo wethu Wokuncishiswa Ukungcola?

Okuphumayo kwehlile kusuka 5,882 (Amathani CO2eq) ku 2,136 (Amathani CO2eq), ukufinyelela okuhlosiwe okubekwe yithimba lokusimama.

Ishadi lebha elibonisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 ngamathani ngokwemakethe (i-Brazil, i-Germany, i-India, i-Japan, ne-USA) enemithombo ehlukaniselwe ekukhiqizweni nasekukhiqizweni kwezinto zokuhamba. I-USA inekhabhoni ephakeme kakhulu ehlanganisiwe, ehamba phambili kwezokuthutha.
Okuphumayo ngemakethe ngayinye (Isimo 2) — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Kodwa-ke, i-CFO yakho kanye nethimba elithengisayo bakhathazekile nge ukwanda kwezindleko zezimpahla ezithengisiwe.

Ishadi lebha elistakiwe elibonisa ukwehlukaniswa kwezindleko zezimpahla ezithengiswa yimakethe (i-USA, Germany, Japan, Brazil, ne-India) zibe ukukhiqiza, ukuthutha, nezindleko ezigxilile. I-India ne-Brazil ine-COGS ephakeme kakhulu ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme ezingaguquki nezokukhiqiza.
I-COGS Entsha Yesimo 2 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Ngoba amanani okukhiphayo awazitholi izindleko ezimisiwe zamafekthri abo, iBrazil neNdiya manje bane-COGS ephezulu kakhulu, ngiya kuze kufike ku-290.47 €/iyunithi.

Nokho, ahlala eyizimakethe ezinamandla okuthenga aphansi kakhulu.

Ithimba Lokuthengisa: “Njengoba singeke sanyusa amanani lapho, ngeke senze inzuzo eBrazil naseNdiya.”

Asikakaqedi. Asizange sizicabangele ezinye izinkomba zemvelo.

Ithimba lokusimama lingathanda futhi ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi.

Isimo sesi-3: Nciphisa Ukusetshenziswa Kwamanzi

Ngokusethwa kwangaphambilini, sifinyelele ukusetshenziswa okumaphakathi kwe 2,683 kL Wamanzi iyunithi ngayinye ekhiqiziwe.

Ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nomthethonqubo ka-2030, kukhona ukucindezela kokuwunciphisa ngezansi 2650 kL/Iyunithi.

Amashadi amabili: kwesokunxele, ishadi le-donut elibonisa ukusatshalaliswa kokusetshenziswa kwamanzi ngezwe, i-Japan ihamba phambili ngo-38.8% kanye ne-USA ngo-33.5%. Kwesokudla, ishadi lebha elibonisa ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi endaweni ngayinye yokukhiqiza, i-India isebenzisa amalitha aphezulu kakhulu angu-3,500 ngeyunithi ngayinye.
Ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi Kwesimo 2 vs. Ukusetshenziswa Kweyunithi — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Lokhu kungenziwa ngokushintsha umkhiqizo uye e-USA, Germany nase Japan ngenkathi kuvalwa amafekthri eBrazil naseNdiya.

Ake sibone ukuthi imodeli ihlongoze ini.

Izithonjana zezinhlobo ezintathu zezimboni: imboni encane, imboni yosayizi omaphakathi, nefekthri enkulu enoshimula, emele amakhono ahlukahlukene okukhiqiza.
Inethiwekhi yokukhiqiza yeSimo sesi-3 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Kubukeka njengenguqulo yesibuko ye-Scenario 1, eningi Amayunithi angama-35,950 athunyelwe ngaphandle futhi amayunithi ayi-13,000 kuphela akhiqizwa kuleli.

Umdwebo we-Sankey obonisa ukugeleza kokukhiqiza kusuka emazweni (isb., i-Germany, i-USA, i-Japan, i-Brazil, ne-India) kuya ezimakethe ezilandelanayo, namanani eyunithi alebulwe ngokugeleza ngakunye, egqamisa amaketanga okuthengiswayo okukhiqiza ukuya emakethe.
Ishadi eligelezayo leSimo sesi-3 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Kodwa manje, ukukhiqizwa kuphushwa izimboni ezinhlanu emazweni “abizayo”

  • Amafekthri amabili e-USA aletha kuleli zwe nase-Japan.
  • Sinezinye izitshalo ezimbili eJalimane kuphela ezizohlinzeka ngemakethe yase-USA.
  • Imboni eyodwa enekhono eliphezulu e-Japan izovulwa ukuze ihlangabezane nesidingo sasendaweni esisele futhi ilethwe ezimakethe ezincane (India, Brazil, naseJalimane).

UMnyango Wezezimali: “Indlela yokuhlela engabizi kakhulu ngokwezimali oyihlongoze.”

Ishadi lebha elistakiwe elibonisa izindleko zezimpahla ezithengiswayo (COGS) ngendawo yokukhiqiza. Ifaka izindleko eziguquguqukayo ngezindleko ezibomvu nezigxilile ngokuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, nezindleko eziphelele e-USA ngo-2.4M€/ngenyanga.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwezindleko Zesimo 3 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Ngokombono wezindleko, lesi yisimo esibi kakhulu, njengoba izindleko zokukhiqiza nezokuthutha zikhuphuka.

Lokhu kubangela isabelomali se 8.89 M€/ngenyanga (uma kuqhathaniswa no-5.68 M€/ngenyanga kuSimo 1).

Ithimba Lokuthengisa: “Amayunithi athengiswa eBrazil nase-India manje ane-COGS enengqondo.”

Ishadi lebha eliqoqiwe elibonisa i-COGS ngeyunithi ngayinye ezimakethe zonkana, ehlukaniswe ezokuthutha, ukukhiqiza, nezindleko ezigxilile. I-Brazil ne-India ibonisa i-COGS ephakeme kakhulu ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu zokuhamba nezokukhiqiza.
I-COGS Entsha Yesimo 2 — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Ngokombono wokuthengisa, izinto zingcono kune-Scenario 2 njengoba izimakethe zase-Brazil nase-India manje zine-COGS ngokuhambisana namandla okuthenga endawo.

Nokho, ithimba lezokuthutha libhekene nenselelo njengoba sinenqwaba yamavolumu ezimakethe ezithumela ngaphandle.

Ithimba Lokusimama: “Kuthiwani ngokusetshenziswa kwamanzi kanye nokukhishwa kwe-CO2?”

Ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi manje 2,632 kL/Iyunithingaphansi kwesihloso sethu sika-2,650 kL.

Nokho, ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 kuqhume.

Ishadi lebha elibonisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 ngemakethe nangomthombo, okuhlukanisa ezokuthutha (okuluhlaza) nokukhiqiza (okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka). I-USA ihamba phambili ngokukhishwa kwegesi ngamathani angu-2,500, ikakhulukazi kwezokuthutha.
Okuphumayo ngemakethe ngayinye (Isimo 3) — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Sibuyele ku-Scenario 1 isimo 4,742 (Amathani CO2eq) zokukhishwa (kuqhathaniswa no-2,136 (Amathani CO2eq) kuSimo 2).

Singacabanga ukuthi lesi simo siyanelisa awekho amaqembu.

Ubunzima bokuthola ukuvumelana

Njengoba sibonile kulesi sibonelo esilula, thina (njengochwepheshe bezibalo zedatha) ayikwazi ukunikeza isisombululo esiphelele esihlangabezana nezidingo zawo wonke amaqembu.

Amamephu omhlaba amathathu abonisa izimo zokusimama zamanethiwekhi ochungechunge lokunikezela. Imephu ngayinye imele ukusethwa okuhlukile kwezindawo zemboni, imizila yezokuthutha, nomthelela ohambisanayo kwezemvelo.
Izimo nomthelela emaqenjini — (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Isimo ngasinye sithuthukisa imethrikhi ethile ngokulimala kwezinye izinkomba.

I-CEO: “Ukusimama akuyona inketho, into ebaluleke kakhulu kithi ukuthi sizinze.”

Kodwa-ke, le mininingwane eqhutshwa yidatha izophakela izingxoxo ezithuthukile ukuze kutholwe ukuvumelana kokugcina futhi kudlulele ekusetshenzisweni.

Umdwebo onethimba lokusimama, amamodeli ezibalo anikwa amandla yi-Python, namamephu amathathu ochungechunge lokunikezela abonisa izindawo zefekthri, imizila yezokuthutha, nemithelela, ebonisa inqubo ehlanganisiwe yokwenza izinqumo.
I-Data Driven Solution Design – (Isithombe ngu-Samir Saci)

Ngalo moya, ngithuthukise leli thuluzi ukuze ngibhekane nobunzima bokuphatha inkampani kanye nezithakazelo ezingqubuzanayo phakathi kwababambe iqhaza.

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