Ukuhlela umjaho we-AI ukusiza ukuqinisekisa ukuthuthukiswa okuphephile kwe-AGI | by GoodAI | Ibhulogi ye-AI ye-Roadmap Institute

Lesi sihloko sihambisana nemephu yomgwaqo ebonakalayo ongayenza buka futhi ulande lapha.

Ukuhlelwa komgwaqo kuyithuluzi eliwusizo lokusivumela ukuthi sibheke ikusasa, sibikezele izindlela ezihlukene ezingaba khona, futhi sikhombe izindawo ezingase ziveze amathuba noma izinkinga. Inhloso ukubona ngeso lengqondo izimo ezihlukene ukuze ulungiselele, futhi ugweme izimo ezingase ziholele ekusaseni elingathandeki noma okubi nakakhulu, inhlekelele. Kuphinde kube wumsebenzi wokubona ngeso lengqondo ikusasa olifisayo nokuthola indlela elungile yokulifinyelela.

Lo mephu womgwaqo ubonisa izimo ezintathu zokucatshangelwa ekuthuthukisweni kohlelo lwezobunhloli obujwayelekile bokwenziwa (AGI), ngokombono wenkampani ecatshangwayo (C1). Okugxilwe kakhulu emjahweni we-AI, lapho ababambiqhaza belwela ukufinyelela i-AI enamandla, nemithelela yayo kwezokuphepha. Iveza izinqumo ezingase zenziwe ngabalingisi ababalulekile “ezimeni zezindaba” ezihlukahlukene, eziholela emiphumeleni eyahlukene. Ukubhala ngekhodi umbala wokukhanya kwethrafikhi kusetshenziselwa ukubona ngeso lengqondo imiphumela engaba khona ngokuluhlaza okubonisa imiphumela emihle, okubomvu – okunegethivu nokuwolintshi – phakathi.

Inhloso yalo mephu womgwaqo akukhona ukwethula isibukeli ngazo zonke izimo ezingaba khona, kodwa ngezibonelo ezimbalwa ezicacile. Imephu yomgwaqo igxile kakhulu ku-AGI, okungenzeka ukuthi izoba namandla okuguqula futhi ezokwazi ukuba nomthelela omkhulu emphakathini. [1].

Lo mephu womgwaqo ungena ngamabomu kwezinye zezimo ezeqisayo ukuze uvuse ingxoxo ngendima ye-AGI ekushintsheni kwepharadigm.

Ukucabanga ukuthi amandla e-AGI makhulu kakhulu, futhi ukuba ngowokuqala ukuyidala kunganikeza inzuzo engakaze ibonwe. [2] [3]kunethuba lokuthi i-AGI ingase isetshenziswe ngaphambi kokuthi ihlolwe ngokwanele. Kulesi simo i-C1 idala i-AGI kanti abanye basajaha ukuqedela ubuchwepheshe. Lokhu kungaholela ekutheni i-C1 ikhathazeke, ikhiphe i-AGI ngaphambi kokuqinisekiswa kokuphepha, futhi ilahlekelwe ukuyilawula.

Okwenzeka ngokulandelayo kulesi simo kuzoncika kuhlobo lwe-AGI edaliwe. Uma ukuzithuthukisa okuphindiwe kwe-AGI kuqhubeka ngokushesha kakhulu ukuze onjiniyela bakwazi ukukuthola, ikusasa lizobe lingekho ezandleni zomuntu. Kulokhu, kuye ngezinjongo namagugu e-AGI, kungaholela esimweni sosuku lwembubhiso noma uhlobo lokuphilisana, lapho abanye abantu bekwazi ukuhlangana ne-AGI futhi bazuze izinzuzo zayo, kanti abanye bangakwazi.

Kodwa-ke, uma izinga lokuzithuthukisa le-AGI lingenamandla, kungase kube nesikhathi esanele sokuqondisa ukuze iphinde ilawuleke. I-AGI ingase iqale ukuphazamisa izinhlaka zenhlalo-mnotho [4]edudulela amaqembu athintekile esenzweni. Lokhu kungase kuholele ohlotsheni oluthile lwenhlangano yokuphepha ye-AGI, ehlanganisa i-C1, enganikezelwa ekuthuthukiseni nasekusebenziseni izindlela zokuphepha ukuze kulawuleke ubuchwepheshe. Ngakho-ke, le nhlangano izokwakhiwa ngaphandle kwesidingo futhi ingase ihlale ndawonye ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi i-AGI ihlala inenzuzo esikhathini esizayo. Uma i-AGI isilawulwa ingase iholele esimeni lapho i-AGI enamandla nephephile ingakhiwa (kabusha) ngokusobala.

I-AGI enamandla nephephile

Umphumela we-AGI onamandla futhi ophephile ungafinyelelwa kuzo zombili izimo 1 no-2 (bheka umdwebo). Kungenzeka ukuthi uhlobo oluthile lwe-AGI prototype olunamandla luzongena emakethe, futhi nakuba lungeke lube usongo olukhona, lungabangela ukuphazamiseka okukhulu komphakathi kanye nokuzenzakalelayo kweningi lemisebenzi. Lokhu kungaholela esidingweni sohlobo “lwemali engenayo eyisisekelo yomhlaba wonke”, noma enye imodeli evumela ukwabelana ngemali engenayo kanye nezinzuzo ze-AGI phakathi kwabantu. Isibonelo, umphakathi jikelele ungakwazi ukufuna isabelo sawo “kumnotho we-AI” ngokusebenzisa izindlela ezihlinzekwa umfelandawonye (bona ngezansi). Qaphela ukuthi indima yohulumeni njengabahlinzeki bohlelo losekelo ingase yehle kakhulu ngaphandle uma ohulumeni bekwazi ukufinyelela ku-AGI kanye nabadlali bezomnotho abanamandla. Amaleveli endabuko ohulumeni abaphusha ukuthola izinsiza ngokusebenzisa intela angase anganeli emnothweni omusha we-AI.

Kulesi simo i-AGI ibonakala njengethuluzi elinamandla, elizonikeza umdali wayo inzuzo enkulu yezomnotho neyomphakathi. Akubhekwa ngokuyinhloko lapha (njengoba kungenhla) njengengozi ekhona, kodwa njengembangela okungenzeka yokuphazamiseka okuningi nokushintsha kwamandla. Onjiniyela bagcina ucwaningo oluningi luyimfihlo futhi noma iziphi izivumelwano azikhuli kudlule imifelandawonye ye-PR, nokho, mkhulu umsebenzi owenziwayo ekuphepheni kwe-AI. Izindlela ezimbili ezingase zithathwe yilesi simo indlela yokusebenzisana yentuthuko noma eyimfihlo.

Indlela yokusebenzisana

Njengoba abalingisi abahlukahlukene befuna ukubambisana ekuthuthukisweni kwe-AGI kungenzeka ukuthi uhlobo oluthile lwenhlanganisela lungathuthuka. Lokhu kungase kuqale njengomsebenzi wokwakha ukwethembana kwesikhashana phakathi kwabadlali abambalwa ababambisene ezindabeni zokuphepha “ezinesabelo esiphansi”, kodwa kungase kuthuthuke kube uhlaka olukhulu lwamazwe ngamazwe lokuthuthukiswa ngokubambisana kwe-AGI. Kulezi zinsuku indlela eya esimeni esihle ilungiswa ngezinhlelo eziphawulekayo ezihlanganisa i-Partnership on AI. [5]IEEE isebenza ngomklamo ohambisana nezimiso zokuziphatha [6]I-Future of Life Institute [7] nokunye okuningi. Kulo mephu womgwaqo inhlangano eqanjiwe yesikali somhlaba wonke, lapho amalungu abambisana khona ngama-algorithms nokuphepha (ebizwa ngokuthi “United AI” efana ne-United Nations), isetshenziswa njengesibonelo. Lokhu kungenzeka kakhulu kuholele esimweni “se-AGI Enamandla nephephile” esichazwe ngenhla, njengoba wonke amakhono atholakalayo emhlabeni wonke anganikelwa, futhi angaba negalelo, ezicini zokuphepha nasekuhlolweni.

Indlela yobuqili

Okuphambene nakho kungase kwenzeke futhi onjiniyela bangasebenza ngokunyenya, besaqhuba umsebenzi wokuphepha ngaphakathi, kodwa ukwethembana phakathi kwezinhlangano bekungeke kuqine ngokwanele ukugqugquzela imizamo yokubambisana. Lokhu kunamandla okuhamba ngezindlela eziningi ezahlukene. Imephu yomgwaqo igxile kulokho okungenzeka uma ama-AGI amaningi anabanikazi abahlukene evela ngesikhathi esisodwa noma uma i-C1 inegunya phezu kobuchwepheshe.

Ama-AGI amaningi
Ama-AGI amaningi angavela ngesikhathi esifanayo. Lokhu kungase kube ngenxa “yokuvuza” enkampanini, ezinye izinkampani ezisondelana ngesikhathi esifanayo, noma uma i-AGI inikezwa ngokuzithandela ngabadali bayo.

Le ndlela futhi inamandla ahlukahlukene kuye ngezinhloso zabadali. Singafinyelela “empini yama-AGI” lapho abalingisi abahlukene belwela ukulawula ngokuphelele. Kodwa-ke, singazithola sisesimweni sokuzinza, esifana nezwe le-post-WW2, lapho umnotho we-AGI ohlukile onabadlali abaningi uthuthuka futhi uqala ukusebenza. Lokhu kungaholela emihlabeni emibili efanayo yabantu abakwazi ukufinyelela ku-AGI nalabo abangenayo, noma ngisho nalabo abahlangana ne-AGI bakhe umphakathi “wonkulunkulu” be-AGI. Lokhu futhi kungaholela ekungalinganini okukhulu, noma umnotho wenala, kuye ngokuthi izisusa “zonkulunkulu” be-AGI nokuthi bakhetha ukwabelana ngezithelo ze-AGI nabo bonke abanye abantu.

I-AGI monopoly
Uma i-C1 ikwazi ukugcina i-AGI ngaphakathi kwezindonga zayo ngokusebenzisa isiko leqembu nezinyathelo zokuphepha, ingahamba ngezindlela eziningi. Uma i-C1 inezinhloso ezimbi ingasebenzisa i-AGI ukuze inqobe umhlaba, okungafana “nempi yama-AGI” (ngenhla). Kodwa-ke, umncintiswano mancane amathuba okuba ube sethubeni lokumelana nobuchwepheshe obunjalo obunamandla. Kungase futhi kuholele kwezinye izifunda ezimbili ezingenhla: uma i-C1 inquma ukwabelana ngezithelo zobuchwepheshe nesintu, singabona umnotho wenala, futhi uma kungenjalo, umphakathi cishe uzolingana kakhulu. Nokho, kukhona elinye ithuba elihloliwe futhi okungukuthi uma i-C1 ingenasithakazelo kulo mhlaba futhi iqhubeka nokusebenza ngokunyenya uma i-AGI isidaliwe. Ngamandla obuchwepheshe i-C1 ingashiya umhlaba futhi iqale ukuhlola indawo yonke ngaphandle kokuqaphela muntu.

Lesi simo sibona ukuguqulwa kancane kancane ukusuka ku-AI encane ukuya ku-AGI. Endleleni ingqalasizinda iyakhiwa kanti nokushintshwa kwamandla kuhamba kancane futhi kulawulwa kakhulu. Sesivele sibona i-AI ewumngcingo ithatha impilo yethu yansuku zonke emnothweni nasemphakathini ngemisebenzi yezandla iya ngokuya izenzakalela. [8] [9]. Lokhu kuqhubekela phambili kungase kubangele umfelandawonye wezokuphepha we-AI omncane ogxile ezinhlelweni eziwumngcingo ze-AI. Le modeli yokuphepha/imithetho ewumngcingo ye-AI ingasetshenziswa njengendawo yokwakha ukwethembana yabadlali abazoqhubeka nokuthuthukisa i-AGI. Kodwa-ke, abalingisi abaphishekela i-AGI kuphela futhi bakhethe ukungathuthukisi ubuchwepheshe obuncane be-AI bangase bashiywe ngaphandle kulolu hlelo.

Njengoba imisebenzi ikhula ngokuzenzakalelayo, ohulumeni kuzodingeka bavikele izinsiza ezengeziwe (ngentela noma ngezinye izindlela) ukuze basekele abantu abathintekile. Lokhu kunyuka kancane kancane kosekelo kungaholela emalini eyisisekelo eyisisekelo, noma imodeli efanayo (njengoba kushiwo ngenhla). Ekugcineni i-AGI yayizofinyelelwa futhi izifunda zokuphela zizoncika ekukhuthazeni komdali.

Nakuba lo mephu womgwaqo ungelona uhlaka olubanzi lwazo zonke izimo ezingaba khona kuyasiza ukukhombisa amathuba athile futhi usinikeze imibono yalokho okufanele sigxile kukho manje.

Ukubambisana

Uma ubheka umhlahlandlela kubonakala kusobala ukuthi esinye sezihluthulelo zokugwema isimo sosuku lwembubhiso, noma impi yama-AGIs, ukusebenzisana phakathi kwabadlali ababalulekile nokudala uhlobo oluthile lwenhlangano yokuphepha ye-AI noma ngisho nesakhiwo sokuthuthukisa i-AI samazwe ngamazwe esinamandla amakhulu. ubudlelwane phakathi kwabalingisi (“United AI”). Esimeni sokuqala sibone ukwakhiwa kwe-consortium ngaphandle kwesidingo ngemuva kokuthi i-C1 ilahlekelwe ukulawula ubuchwepheshe. Nokho, kwezinye izimo ezimbili sibona izibonelo zendlela inhlangano yokuphepha engasiza ngayo ukulawula intuthuko futhi igweme izimo ezingafuneki. I-consortium eqondiswe ekuphepheni, kodwa futhi nokuphila kahle kwabantu, ingasiza futhi ukugwema ukungalingani okukhulu esikhathini esizayo futhi ikhuthaze umnotho wenala. Noma kunjalo, ukuhlonza izisusa ezifanele zokubambisana endaweni ngayinye ngesikhathi kuseyinselelo enkulu.

Imali engenayo eyisisekelo yonke, i-dividend eyisisekelo yomhlaba wonke, noma okufanayo

Enye itimu ebonakala ingenakugwenywa emnothweni we-AI noma we-AGI wukushintshela “emphakathini ongenamsebenzi” lapho imishini yenza imisebenzi eminingi. Umbuso lapho, ngenxa ye-automation, ingxenye enkulu yabantu emhlabeni ilahlekelwa umsebenzi yinto okumele ihlelelwe. Ukuthi lokhu kuwushintsho lwemali engenayo eyisisekelo jikelele, i-dividend eyisisekelo yomhlaba wonke [10] isatshalaliswa isuka esikhwameni sengcebo yenhlalo engatshala imali kumasheya namabhondi, noma imodeli efanayo ezoqinisekisa ukuthi izinguquko zomphakathi ziyanxeshezelwa, idinga ukuhamba kancane ukuze kugwenywe ukuphazamiseka nezinxushunxushu ezinkulu. I-consortium eshiwo ngenhla ingase futhi igxile ekushintsheni komphakathi kulolu hlelo olusha. Bheka lokhu okuthunyelwe uma ungathanda ukufunda okwengeziwe nge-AI nekusasa lomsebenzi.

Ukuxazulula umjaho we-AI

Imephu yomgwaqo ibonisa imithelela yomjaho wezobuchwepheshe oya ku-AI, futhi nakuba ukuncintisana kwaziwa ngokugqugquzela ukuqanjwa kabusha, kufanele siqaphele izingozi ezihlobene nomjaho futhi sifune izindlela zokuzigwema (isb. ngokukhula kokwethembana nokusebenzisana). Isihloko somjaho we-AI sinwetshiwe ku-General AI Challenge esungulwe yi-GoodAI, lapho ababambiqhaza abanezizinda ezihlukene ezivela emhlabeni wonke bathumele iziphakamiso zabo zokunciphisa ubungozi. Iziphakamiso bezihlukene ngokwencazelo yawo yomjaho kanye nezindlela zokunciphisa izingibe. Bahlanganisa izindlela zokuzilawula ezinhlanganweni, ukuxhumanisa amazwe ngamazwe, izinhlaka zokulawula ubungozi nokunye okuningi. Ungathola okufakiwe okuyisithupha okuwine imiklomelo kokuthi Sikhuthaza abafundi ukuthi basinikeze impendulo futhi bakhe phezu kwemibono ethuthukiswe ekuphonselweni inselelo.

[1] Armstrong, S., Bostrom, N., & Shulman, C. (2016). Ukugijima eweni: imodeli yokuthuthukiswa kobuhlakani bokwenziwa. I-AI NOMPHAKATHI, 31(2), 201–206.

[2] U-Allen, G., & Chan, T. (2017). I-Artificial Intelligence kanye Nokuphepha Kwezwe, Umbiko Wezobuchwepheshe. I-Harvard Kennedy School, i-Harvard University, e-Boston, MA.

[3] Bostrom, N. 2017. Imithelela Yamasu Yokuvuleleka Ekuthuthukisweni kwe-AI.
Inqubomgomo Yomhlaba Wonke 8: 135–148.

[4] Brundage, M., Shahar, A., Clark, J., Allen, G., Flynn, C., Farquhar, S., Crootof, R., & Bryson, J. (2018). Ukusetshenziswa Okunonya Kokuhlakanipha Kokwenziwa: Ukubikezela, Ukuvimbela, kanye Nokunciphisa.

[5] Ukubambisana ku-AI. (2016). Abaholi Bemboni Basungula Ubambiswano Ku-AI Imikhuba Engcono Kakhulu

[6] IEEE. (2017). I-IEEE Ikhipha Idizayini Eqondaniswe Ngokuziphatha, Inguqulo yesi-2 ukuze ibonise “Izimiso Zokuziphatha Ezisebenzayo” Zokuthuthukiswa Kwezinhlelo Ezizimele Nezihlakaniphile (A/IS)

[7] Tegmark, M. (2014). Ikusasa Lobuchwepheshe: Izinzuzo Nezingozi

[8] I-Havrda, M. & Millership, W. (2018). I-AI nomsebenzi – i-paradigm shift? I-GoodAI blog Medium.

[9] Manyika, J., Lund, S., Chui, M., Bughin, J., Woetzel, J., Batra, P., Ko, R., and Sanghvi, S.
(2017). Imisebenzi elahlekile, imisebenzi ezuziwe: Lizosho ukuthini ikusasa lomsebenzi emisebenzini, amakhono, namaholo. Umbiko ovela eMcKinsey Global Institute.

[10] Bruenig, M. (2017). Isikhwama Sezenhlalakahle SaseMelika. Iphrojekthi Yenqubomgomo Yabantu.