Ukuthi Umsebenzi Wabantu Uyohlala Kanjani Ubalulekile Emhlabeni We-AI

ebusa inkulumo-mpikiswano ye-AI njengamanje: ukuthi i-AI izothatha indawo yethu sonke, ukuthi imisebenzi izonyamalala phakathi nezinyanga eziyi-18, ukuthi ukuwa kwemakethe yezabasebenzi akunakugwenywa. Abanye bakusho nge-alamu, abanye, ngomdlandla. Kodwa cishe akekho oyeka ukubuka idatha yangempela.

Lesi siqephu sokuqala ochungechungeni asisona ukuvikela ngokuyimpumputhe ithemba lezobuchwepheshe, noma ukwenqatshwa kokungabi nathemba. Kungumzamo wokufunda iqiniso njengoba linjalo nokungqubuzana kwalo, imikhawulo yalo, namathuba alo.

Kunomugqa ovela kuFriedrich Hayek obamba umoya walokhu kuhlaziya:

Akekho umuntu ongaba isazi somnotho esiwusomnotho kuphela futhi ngaze ngalingeka ukuthi ngengeze ngokuthi isazi somnotho esiwusomnotho kuphela kungenzeka sibe wuhlupho uma kungeyona ingozi enhle.

Okufanayo kusebenza namuhla kunoma ubani obheka i-AI ngokusebenzisa ilensi eyodwa kuphela. Ukuze uqonde ukuthi i-AI empeleni yenzani eqinisweni lethu, kufanele weqe ubuchwepheshe, ezomnotho, umlando, nefilosofi.

Iqiniso njengenzuzo yokuncintisana

UDavid Beyer (@dbeyer123) ushicilele ukuhlaziya okubamba kahle ukungezwani okuphakathi kwalesi sikhathi. Cabanga ngezinkampani ezimbili zezokwelapha. Eyokuqala icubungula izigidi zezithombe ze-radiology. Owesibili uphatha izigidi zezicelo zomshwalense wezempilo.

Eyokuqala inenkinga i-AI engayixazulula kahle. Izithombe azishintshi; ulwazi luhlangana ngedatha. Ngekhompyutha eyanele, noma ubani angafinyelela izinga elifanayo lokunemba. Kuyinkinga emile.

Okwesibili kubhekene nento ehluke ngokuphelele: isistimu ehlanganisiwe eguquguqukayo njalo. Imithethonqubo, izinqubomgomo, amakhodi okukhokha abuyekezwayo, izingxabano eziguqukayo. Ulwazi lokusebenza lapho ngeke lufundwe noma lufaniswe ngaphandle; itholwa ngokuthola ukwenqatshwa ohlelweni, ukulungisa, nokuzama futhi. U-Beyer ubiza lokhu “izicubu ezibomvu”: ulwazi umhlaba wangempela kuphela ongakunika lona, ​​ngokusebenzisa ukungqubuzana, ngesikhathi sangempela.

I-AI ingasheshisa ukufunda lapho imithetho isilungisiwe. Kodwa ayikwazi ukukhiqiza izimanga zomhlaba wangempela. Ngeke iphoqe abalawuli ukuthi baguqule imithetho yabo ngokushesha, noma izimbangi ukuthi zihlasele ngaphambi kokuthi ulunge. Isivinini sokufunda kulezi zinhlelo sinqunyelwe ijubane leqiniso, hhayi ijubane lekhompyutha.

Iqiniso ngokwalo liyinzuzo yakho yokuncintisana okunzima ukuyiphindaphinda.

Inkinga Yokutholwa: Ubuchwepheshe Obuphindaphindayo ≠ Ukwamukela Okuphindaphindiwe

Amamodeli e-AI athuthuka ngokuphindaphindiwe; amamodeli aqeqesha amamodeli angcono. Lokho kuyiqiniso futhi akujwayelekile. Kodwa abantu abaningi bakwengeza lokho kuphindaphinda emnothweni futhi bacabange ukuthi ukushintshwa kwabasebenzi abaningi kuseduze futhi kuyachayeka.

Ukuhlaziywa kwe-Citadel Securities (@citsecurities) kokuthi “Global Intelligence Crisis of 2026” kuhlakaza lokho kunengqondo ngokusobala: ubuchwepheshe obuphindaphindayo abufani nokutholwa okuphindaphindiwe.

Ukutholwa komhlaba wangempela kuvinjwe kakhulu izici ezingalingani ngesivinini sesoftware:

• Imali ebonakalayo kanye nokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda
• Ukutholakala kwegridi yamandla namandla
• Izimvume zokulawula
• Ushintsho lwenhlangano, oluhamba kancane kunawo wonke

Ukuze ubone le mikhawulo ebonakalayo isebenza, bheka izindleko zokwakha e-United States. Isithembiso se-AI sidinga ukusekelwa okukhulu ngokomzimba: izindwangu ze-semiconductor, izikhungo zedatha, namanethiwekhi wamandla.

Ukusetshenziswa kwemali kweqe kusuka cishe ku-$75 billion kuya ngaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-240 zamaRandi phakathi kuka-2021 no-2024, okuwukugxuma okukhulu kakhulu okurekhodiwe. Futhi lokho kusekelwa ngokomzimba kuthatha iminyaka, hhayi izinyanga.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukushaqeka kokukhiqiza okuqhutshwa yi-AI, ngokomlando, ukushaqeka okuhle kokuhlinzeka: kunciphisa izindleko eziphansi, ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa, futhi andise imali engenayo yangempela. U-Keynes wabikezela (ngephutha njengenjwayelo) ngo-1930 ukuthi, ngenxa yezinzuzo zokukhiqiza, ngekhulu lama-21 sizobe sisebenza amahora angu-15 ngesonto. Wayenephutha ngoba wayekubukela phansi ukunwebeka kwesifiso somuntu. Njengoba ubuchwepheshe behlisa izindleko, asiyeki ukusebenza; simane sandise umkhawulo wethu wokusebenzisa, sifune ikhwalithi ephezulu, izinsiza ezintsha, futhi sakhe izimboni ebezingacabangeki ngaphambilini.

Idatha yangempela iyakufakazela lokhu: kube khona ukweqa okungakaze kubonwe ekwakhiweni kwebhizinisi elisha e-United States kusukela ngo-2020, kumazinga ahlala ephezulu ngokomlando eminyakeni yamuva. Kude nokuthola inkontileka, umsebenzi wokudala wabantu uyakhula lapho imithetho yegeyimu ishintsha.

Futhi ngokuphambene nokulandisa kokufuduka kwabantu abaningi, isidingo semisebenzi yobuchwepheshe efana nobunjiniyela besoftware sithole unyawo oluqinile, sizinza safinyelela emazingeni ka-2019 naphezu kokulungiswa kwangemva kobhubhane. Lokhu kugcizelela ukuthi ubuchwepheshe busebenza kanjani njengokulekelela emsebenzini wethu: ukuhlela kabusha umsebenzi kunokuwususa ngokuqondile.

Ingabe i-AI izothatha indawo yethu? Umbuzo Ongalungile

“I-AI izothatha indawo yethu sonke.” “Yonke imisebenzi izosebenza ngemishini ezinyangeni eziyi-18.”

Uma ubulokhu ulandela izindaba zakamuva ze-AI namaphodikasti, kungenzeka ukuthi ufunde into efana nale. Okunye kwakho ihaba elivusa usinga; ezinye zazo kushiwo ama-CEO, abasunguli, kanye nezibalo ezivelele ezinkampanini ezinkulu kanye nabaqalayo. Kodwa umbuzo okudingeka siwubuze akukhona ukuthi i-AI isithatha isikhundla yini; yi ukuthi sihlala kanjani sibalulekile kulokho esikwenzayo.

Angikholwa ukuthi yonke imisebenzi izokwenziwa ngokuzenzakalelayo, noma ukuthi ngeke sibe khona indawo yonjiniyela, ababhali bamabhuku ezimali, abameli, nabanye abaningi. Hhayi ngokushesha. Engikukholelwayo ukuthi sizongena kumodi yokusebenza sisizwa izinhlelo ze-AI nama-ejentiokwenza umsebenzi wethu uphumelele kakhulu. Kodwa lokho kudinga umzamo ohlukile kithi.

Imibuzo okufanele siyibuze:

• Sihlala kanjani sibalulekile kulokho esikwenzayo?
• Siqhubeka kanjani sithuthuka futhi sifunda?
• Ngiwugcina kanjani umqondo wami usebenza futhi ukucabanga kwami ​​​​okujulile kubukhali?
• Ezweni lapho umsebenzi wami wakha khona ukwaziswa kanye nokuqondisa ama-ejenti azimele, ngiyisebenzisa kanjani i-AI ngendlela engcono kakhulu? Ukusebenza kahle, ngaphandle kokulahlekelwa uchungechunge lwalokho engikwenzayo.

Umsebenzi wethu oyinhloko kulo mhlaba omusha uzoba:

• Ukuklama amasistimu kanye nezixazululo zezakhiwo
• Ukudalwa kwamasu ama-ejenti angakwazi ukuwenza
• Ukuqonda ibhizinisi kanye nokuhunyushelwa ezinhlelweni ezibambekayo
• Ukwakhiwa kwamakhono eduze kwe-AI
• Ukucabanga okubucayi ukuqondisa umsebenzi osizwa yi-AI endleleni efanele
• Ucwaningo olujulile kanye nama-ejenti ukuxazulula izinkinga zangempela
• Amamethrikhi, i-orchestration, ukuqapha, kanye nokubusa wezinhlelo nama-ejenti (kanye nama-subagents).

Kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo, kudingeka silondoloze umzamo njalo ukuze funda, funda, hlaziya, buza futhi uqinisekise esikwenzayo. Izimpendulo esizinikeza ama-ejenti kumele zihambisane nesikhathi, umzamo, kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemiqondo yethu ngenkuthalo, ukucabanga kwethu okuhluzekile, kanye nekhono lokwenza izinkomba eziphambene okungekho modeli ongakwazi ukuzenza ngokwazo.

Kuningi okungenzeka eminyakeni ezayo. Indaba emayelana nokunyamalala komsebenzi izolokhu ishuba. Kodwa ungalibali iqiniso lokuthi indlela eya empumelelweni ihlala injalo: ukulungiselela, ukutadisha, ukucwaninga, nokucabanga okujulile kukho konke esikufundayo nesikuzwayo.

Kuthiwani Uma Umhlaba Ungapheli? Isimo Akekho Ofaka Intengo Ngaso

Kukhona ukuhlaziya okuvela Incwadi kaKobeissi (@KobeissiLetter) engicabanga ukuthi kubalulekile ukuqedela lesi sithombe: “Kusobala Kakhulu. Kuthiwani Uma I-AI Ingawuqedi Ngempela Umhlaba?” Impikiswano eyinhloko inamandla: lapho ukulandisa kuba sobala kakhulu, imakethe isivele inenani layo, futhi iqiniso livame ukumangala ukusuka kolunye uhlangothi..

Imakethe isivele yamunca isimo se-apocalyptic: I-IBM ihlushwa usuku lwayo olubi kakhulu kusukela ngo-2000 lapho uClaude enza ngokuzenzakalelayo ikhodi ye-COBOL; I-Adobe iwela ngo-30% njengoba i-AI icindezela ukugeleza komsebenzi wokudala; I-CrowdStrike ilahlekelwa u-$20 billion emakethe ezinsukwini ezimbili zokuhweba lapho i-Anthropic yethula ithuluzi lokuphepha elizenzakalelayo, ngisho no-Nvidia uye wazabalaza. Lezi zinyathelo zingokoqobo futhi zinengqondo: izimakethe zibuyisela izindleko zomsebenzi wokuqonda ngesikhathi sangempela.

Kodwa ukucabanga kwenhlekelele kuqukethe ugibe oluyisisekelo: icabanga ukuthi isidingo silungisiwe. I-loop ye-bearish iyahamba: I-AI ingena esikhundleni sabasebenzi → ukuwa kwamaholo → izinkontileka zokusetshenziswa → izinkampani zizenza ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuze zivikele amamajini → umjikelezo uyaziphakela wona. Imodeli yomnotho emile ngokuphelele.

Umlando wezobuchwepheshe uphikisana ngokuhlelekile nalokho kunengqondo. Uma izindleko zokukhiqiza okuthile ziwa, isidingo asihlali siphansi, siyakhula. Lapho ukwenza ikhompuyutha kuba ishibhile, asizange sisebenzise inani elifanayo lokubala ngentengo ephansi: sakhe izimboni zonke phezu kwaleso sisekelo. Intengo yamakhompyutha omuntu siqu yehle ngo-99.7% phakathi kuka-1980 no-2025:

Umphumela? Akukho ukugoqa. Bekune-inthanethi, omakhalekhukhwini, i-e-commerce, ukusakaza, izinkundla zokuxhumana, i-cloud computing kanye nawo wonke umnotho wedijithali namuhla oqashe amakhulu ezigidi zabantu ezigabeni ebezingekho ngo-1980.

U-Kobeissi wethula imiqondo emibili okufanele ubambelele kuyo: “Ghost GDP”: okukhiphayo okuvela kudatha kodwa okungazuzisi imindeni — uma kuqhathaniswa “I-GDP ye-Abundance”: ukukhula okuhlangene nokwehla kwangempela kwezindleko zokuphila. Isimo se-AI esinethemba asidingi ukukhuphuka kwamaholo; kudinga ukuthi amanani esevisi ehle ngokushesha kunemali engenayo. Uma i-AI yehlisa izindleko zokuphathwa kokunakekelwa kwezempilo, izinsizakalo zomthetho, ukubalwa kwezimali, imfundo, nokusekelwa kobuchwepheshe, imindeni ithola amandla okuthenga angempela ngisho noma iholo layo lingasusi nedola elilodwa.

Futhi isibonakaliso esibaluleke kakhulu ukuthi lokhu sekuvele kwenzeka. Ukukhiqizwa kwezabasebenzi e-US kukhuphuke ngesivinini esisheshayo emashumini amabili eminyaka:

Indawo enomthunzi iphawula inkathi ye-AI ekhiqizayo. Inkomba ayikakhuphuki nje, ikhuphuka ngokushesha. Yilokhu kanye ebesingalindela ukukubona ekushaqekeni kokunikezwayo okuhle: okukhiphayo okwengeziwe ngehora okusetshenziwe, okuhunyushwa ngokomlando kube inhlalakahle ehlanganisiwe.

Umbuzo uKobeissi awuphakamisayo: Wuma i-scenario ephansi kakhulu ingeyona i-dystopia, kodwa inala? Lowo ngumbuzo olungile. Hhayi ngoba inala iqinisekisiwe, kodwa ngenxa yokuthi izimakethe kanye nemibono yomphakathi kukhombe ngokwedlulele ukulandisa okugoqiwe, okushiya isimo sokunwebeka singamelwe ngokuphawulekayo engxoxweni yomphakathi.

Isimo esinentengo ephansi kakhulu namuhla akuyona i-dystopia. Kuyinala

Kusho Ukuthini Konke Lokhu?

Sibheke imibono emithathu ehlukene embuzweni ofanayo: yenzani i-AI eqinisweni lethu?

I-Beyer lisitshela ukuthi okungokoqobo kunokushayisana kwe-AI engakwazi ukukulingisa: ulwazi lokusebenza oluzuzwe ngokungqubuzana kumasistimu ayinkimbinkimbi luyinzuzo yokuncintisana okunzima ukuphindaphinda.

I-Citadel Securities kusikhumbuza ukuthi ijubane lobuchwepheshe alilingani nejubane lokutholwa. Umhlaba ophathekayo, olawulayo, nowenhlangano uzibekela owawo umkhawulo wesivinini, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amamodeli athuthuka ngokushesha kangakanani.

Kobeissi iphakamisa ukuthi isimo esinenani eliphansi kakhulu ukuchichima, hhayi ukugoqa. Ukuthi uma izindleko zokucabanga ziwa, isintu asimi, siyadala.

La maphuzu amathathu awaphikisani, ayaphelelisana. Ndawonye bakha isithombe esibumbene: I-AI ingamandla okuguqula angempela futhi anamandla, kodwa igxiliswe eqinisweni ngemithetho yayo, imigqa yesikhathi, kanye nokungqubuzana. Ukulingisa akulona iqiniso. Futhi kulelo gebe, phakathi kwalokho i-AI engakwazi ukubala nalokho okufunwa umhlaba wangempela, uphila ithuba lalabo abazimisele ukuqhubeka nokufunda, ukucabanga, nokwakha.

I-AI izovumela ukufinyelela kumakhono ayedinga iminyaka yokuqeqeshwa kwezobuchwepheshe. Engakwazi ukukubusa ngentando yeningi ukwahlulela, ukuqonda, ulwazi oluzuzwe ngokungqubuzana emhlabeni wangempela, kanye nokuzimisela ukwenza umsebenzi okungekho omunye umuntu ofuna ukuwenza.

Leso “yizicubu ezibomvu” okungekho muntu ongasiphuca zona.

Lesi yisiqalo nje. Kuziqephu ezizayo sizoqhubeka nokwembula lezi zimo ezihlanganisa ubuchwepheshe, isayensi, ezomnotho, umlando, kanye nemvelo yethu yomuntu.

Siyakwamukela ku-The Road to Reality.

Ngilandele ukuze uthole izibuyekezo ezengeziwe

Imithombo Nezikhombo

• Beyer, David. “I-Reality's Moat.” – Ukuhlaziywa kwemikhawulo ye-AI ngokumelene nezinhlelo zomhlaba wangempela eziyinkimbinkimbi kanye nomqondo wezicubu eziyisibazi ezisebenzayo.
• I-Citadel Securities. “Global Intelligence Crisis 2026.” – Ukuhlaziywa kwe-Macroeconomic on recursive technology vs. Recursive adoption kanye nemikhawulo ebonakalayo ye-AI.
• Incwadi kaKobeissi. “Kusobala Kakhulu. Kuthiwani Uma I-AI Ingawuqedi Ngempela Umhlaba?” (2026) – x.com/KobeissiLetter
• Penrose, Roger. Indlela Eya Kwangempela: Umhlahlandlela Ophelele Wemithetho Yendawo Yonke. Knopf, 2005.
• Hayek, uFriedrich. Caphula kusuka “Inkinga Yezobuchwepheshe” kanye nemibhalo ehlobene ne-interdisciplinary economics.

Idatha kanye nochungechunge lwezibalo

Wonke amashadi amahlanu kulesi sihloko adalwe umbhali esebenzisa idatha etholwe ku-Federal Reserve Bank yase-St. Louis (FRED) database.