Yonke inkathi ye-NBA, amaqembu angama-30 ancintisana ngento eyodwa kuphela ezofinyelela: Ifa lomqhudelwano. Ukusuka kumazinga wamandla ukuhweba ngezinxushunkwane zokugcina nokulimala, abalandeli kanye nabahlaziyi ngokufanayo bacabanga ngokungapheli mayelana nokuthi ngubani ozophakamisa i-larryy O'Brien Trophy.
Kepha kuthiwani uma sikwazi ukudlula ngaphezu kwalokho okushisayo kuthathwa kanye nokubikezela, futhi Sebenzisa idatha nokufunda komshini, ekugcineni kwesizini ejwayelekile, kubikezele i-NBA Champion?
Kulesi sihloko, ngizohamba ngale nqubo – kusuka ekubuthanweni nasekulungiseni imininingwane, ukuyoqeqesha nokuhlola imodeli, ekugcineni ngiyisebenzise ukwenza izibikezelo ze-playoffs ezizayo ezingama-2024-25. Endleleni, ngizogcizelela eminye imininingwane emangazayo kakhulu eyaqhakaza ekuhlaziyeni.
Yonke ikhodi nedatha esetshenzisiwe iyatholakala Umuthi othile kiki.
Ukuqonda inkinga
Ngaphambi kokungena ekuqeqesheni imodeli, isinyathelo esibaluleke kakhulu kunoma iyiphi iphrojekthi yokufunda ngomshini siqonda inkinga:
Yimuphi umbuzo esizama ukuwuphendula, nokuthi iyiphi idatha (nemodeli) engasisiza ukuba sifike lapho?
Kulokhu, umbuzo ulula: Ngubani ozoba ngumpetha we-NBA?
Umbono wokuqala wemvelo ukuwukubeka lokhu njenge Inkinga yokuhlukanisa: Iqembu ngalinye ngesizini ngayinye libhalwe njenge Ingqwele noma Hhayi iqhawe.
Kepha kukhona ukubamba. Kukhona kuphela iqhawe elilodwa ngonyaka (ngokusobala).
Ngakho-ke uma sidonsa idatha kusuka ezinkathini ezingama-40 ezedlule, sinezibonelo ezingama-40 ezinhle … namakhulu ababi. Ukuthi ukungabi nazinsuku ezihle kukwenza kube nzima kakhulu ngemodeli yokufunda amaphethini anenjongo, kucatshangelwa ngokukhethekile ukuthi ukuwina isihloko se-NBA esivele singenayo idatha yomlando eyanele – asisebenzi ngezinkathi zonyaka ezingama-20,000. Lokho kusweleka kwenza kube nzima kakhulu kunoma iyiphi imodeli yokuhlukaniswa ukuze uqonde ngempela lokho okuhlukanisa nabanqobi abavela kwabanye.
Sidinga indlela ebukhali yokufaka inkinga.
Ukusiza imodeli ukuthi iqonde ukuthi yini eyenza iqhawe, liwusizo futhi ukukufundisa lokho okwenza pheshe UChampion – nokuthi kwenzeka kanjani lokho eqenjini elikhishwe emzuliswaneni lokuqala. Ngamanye amagama, sifuna imodeli yokufunda degrees of impumelelo kuma-playoffs, kunokuba umphumela olula we-yebo / akukho.
Lokhu kwangiholela emcabangweni we I-Champion Share – Ingxenye yePlayoff iwina iqembu eliphumelele kulo lonke elidingekayo ukunqoba isihloko.
Kusuka ngo-2003 kuqhubeke, kuthatha 16 winukuba yi-NBA iqhawe. Kodwa-ke, phakathi kuka-1984 no-2002, umjikelezo wokuqala wawunguchungechunge olungcono kakhulu lwezinkulu, ngakho-ke phakathi nalesosikhathi esidingekayo 15 win.
Iqembu elilahlekelwa ngumzuliswano lokuqala lingaba no-0 noma u-1 Win (Champion Abelana = 1/16), ngenkathi iqembu elenza ama-finals kepha alahlekelwe yi-14 / 14/16). Umpetha unesabelo esigcwele esingu-1.0.
Lokhu kuthuzisa umsebenzi njenge- Inkinga Yokubuyisa lapho imodeli ibikezela inani eliqhubekayo phakathi kuka-0 no-1 – emelela ukuthi iqembu ngalinye lisondele kangakanani ukuzoyithola konke.
Kulokhu kusetha, iqembu ne inani eliphakeme kakhulu elibikezelwe Ingabe imodeli yethu i-Pick yethu ye-NBA Champion.
Le ndlela efanayo ne Isibikezelo se-MVP kusuka esihlokweni sami esedlule.
Umbhalo
I-Basketball – kanye ne-NBA ikakhulukazi – kungenye yemidlalo ethokozisayo kakhulu yokusebenza nesayensi yedatha, ngenxa yevolumu yezibalo ezitholakala ngokukhululeka. Kule phrojekthi, ngaqoqa idatha kusuka Inkomba ye-basketballusebenzisa iphakethe lami lePython Brcraperokuvumela ukufinyelela okulula kubadlali kanye ne-Teams Data. Konke ukuqoqwa kwedatha kwenziwa ngokuya ngemihlahlandlela yewebhusayithi kanye nemikhawulo yokulinganisa.
Imininingwane esetshenzisiwe ifaka phakathi Izibalo Zeqembu Leqembu , Ukuma okujwayelekile kwesizini (isib., win amaphesenti, imbewu), kanye Izibalo Zezinga Lesidlali eqenjini ngalinye (elinqunyelwe kubadlali abavele okungenani imidlalo engama-30) futhi ukusebenza komlando we-playoffizinkomba.
Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukuba uqaphele lapho usebenza Amanani akhona, aphelele . Ngokwesibonelo, amaphuzu aphakathi kumdlalo ngamunye (PPG)Esikhathini esingu-2023-24 114.2ngenkathi ku-2000-01 bekukhona 94.8– Ukwanda cishe I-20%.
Lokhu kungenxa yochungechunge lwezinto, kepha iqiniso ukuthi umdlalo usuguqukile ngokuhamba kweminyaka, ngakho-ke nama-metric asuselwa kuwo.
Ukuze uphendule lo shintsho, indlela lapha igwema ukusebenzisa izibalo ngokuphelele, i-acting esikhundleni salokho ejwayelekile, amamethrikhi ahlobene. Ngokwesibonelo:
- Esikhundleni se-PPG yeqembu, ungasebenzisa okwabo siklelisi kuleso sikhathi .
- Esikhundleni sokubala ukuthi bangaki abadlali abaphakathi kwama-20 + PPG, ungacabanga ukuthi bangakanani ku I-10 ephezulu yokushaya amagoli njalo njalo.
Lokhu kwenza imodeli ukuthi ithathwe Ukubuyiselwa OkuhlobeneNgaphakathi kwenkathi ngayinye, ukwenza ukuqhathanisa amashumishumi eminyaka kutholakele ngokwengeziwe futhi ngaleyo ndlela kuvumela ukufakwa kwezinkathi ezindala ukucebisa i-dataset.
Idatha evela ku Ngo-1984 kuya ku-2024izinkathi zasetshenziswa ukuqeqesha nokuhlola imodeli, ingqikithi Izikhathi ezingama-40 nenani elihlukile lama-70.
Ngaphambi kokungena kwimodeli uqobo, amanye amaphethini athokozisayo aqhamuka ekuhlaziyweni kokuhlola lapho eqhathanisa amaqembu wobuhlakani kuwo wonke amaqembu a-Playoff awonke:
Ompetha bavame ukuqhamuka kwimbewu ephezulu nangamaphesenti aphezulu okuwina, ngokusobala. Iqembu elinomlando ojwayelekile wesizini ojwayelekile ukuze uwine konke kulesi sikhathi kwakungu 1994-95 Houston Rocketsiholwa nguHakeem Olajuwon, ukuqeda 47-35 (.573) nokungena kuma-playoffs njengokuphela kwe Iqembu le-10 elingcono kakhulu lonke(6th entshonalanga).
Enye into ephawuleka ukuthi ompetha bavame ukuba nobudala obuphakeme kancane, okuphakamisa ukuthi isipiliyoni sidlala indima ebalulekile uma kuqala ama-playoffs. Iqembu elincane lomncintiswano ku-database elinezilinganiso zeminyaka engama-26.6 ngu 1990-91 Chicago Bullsfuthi okudala kuyinto 1997-98 Chicago Bullsiminyaka engama-31,2 – izihloko zokuqala nezokugcina ezivela ku-Michael Jordan Dinasty.
Ngokufanayo, amaqembu nabaqeqeshi abebene-franchise isikhathi eside futhi bavame ukuthola impumelelo eyengeziwe ku-postseason.
Ukumodela
Imodeli esetshenzisiwe yayikhona I-Lightgbmi-algorithm esekwe esihlahleni eyaziwa kabanzi njengenye yezindlela eziphumelela kakhulu zemininingwane ye-tabular, eceleni kwabanye njenge-XGBOOST. Ukusesha kwegridi kwenziwa ukukhomba ama-hyperpameters amahle ngale nkinga ethile.
Ukusebenza kwemodeli kuhlolwe kusetshenziswa iphutha elinezimpande (Uhlobo luka-RMSE) kanye ne-coeffeefred enganelekile yokuzimisela (² ).
Ungathola ifomula nencazelo yemetro ngayinye I-athikili ye-MVP yangaphambilini.
Izinkathi ezisetshenziselwa ukuqeqeshwa nokuhlolwa zikhethwe ngokungahleliwe, ngokucindezela kwe Ukugcina izinkathi ezintathu zokugcina zesethi yokuhlolaUkuze uhlole kangcono ukusebenza kwemodeli kwidatha yakamuva. Okusemqoka ukuthi wonke amaqembu afakiwe kwidathabhethi – hhayi nje lezo ezifanelekela ama-playoffs – ukuvumela imodeli ukuthi ifunde amaphethini ngaphandle kokuncika kulwazi lwangaphambilini lwezeluleko ze-postseason.
Umphumela
Lapha singabona ukuqhathanisa phakathi “kokusabalalisa” kokuqagela kanye namanani wangempela. Ngenkathi kungokwezobuchwepheshe i-histogram – selokhu sisebenzelana nenkinga yokubuyiselwa emuva – isasebenza njengokusatshalaliswa okubukwayo ngoba amanani ahlosiwe asuka ku-0 kuye ku-1.
Njengoba sikwazi ukubona, izibikezelo kanye namanani wangempela alandela iphethini efanayo, zombili zigxile eduze kwe-zero – njengoba amaqembu amaningi awafinyeleli impumelelo ephakeme. Lokhu kusekelwa futhi ngokusatshalaliswa kwamaphutha asele, okugxile ezizungeze zero futhi kufana nokusatshalaliswa okujwayelekile. Lokhu kusikisela ukuthi imodeli iyakwazi ukuthwebula futhi ivelise amaphethini angaphansi akhona kudatha.
Mayelana namamethrikhi asebenza kahle, imodeli enhle kakhulu ethola i-RMSE ye-0.184 kanye ne-R² Score ka-0.537 kudathabhethi yokuhlola.
Indlela ephumelelayo yokubona okuguquguqukayo okungcono kakhulu okuthonya ukubikezela kwemodeli kudlula Amanani abunjiwe i-atechnique enikeza incazelo efanelekile yokuthi isici ngasinye sithinta kanjani ukubikezela kwemodeli.
Futhi, incazelo ejulile nge-Shape nokuthi ungayihumusha kanjani ishadi layo ingatholakala ngaphakathi Ukubikezela i-NBA MVP ngokufunda komshini .
Kusuka eshadini le-shape, kuvela ukuqonda okubalulekile okubalulekile:
- Inhlwanyelona- W / l%Isikhundla phakathi kwezici ezintathu eziphakeme kakhulu ezinomthelela, ukugqamisa ukubaluleka kokusebenza kweqembu ngesizini ejwayelekile.
- Izibalo zeqembu leqembu njenge Isilinganiso se-Net (NRTG) , Amaphuzu Womphikisi ngamunye Game (PA / G) , Imajini yokunqoba (mov) na- Ukulinganisa okuhlaselayo (i-ORTG / a) Futhi dlala indima ebalulekile ekubumbeni impumelelo ye-Playoff.
- Ohlangothini lwesidlali, ama-metric athuthukile agqamile: Inani labadlali abaseBox Plus Plus / Minus (BPM) na- I-TOP 3 yokuwina amasheya ngemizuzu engama-48 (WS / 48) ziphakathi kwabathonya kakhulu.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi imodeli ibuye ithumba amathrendi abanzi – amaqembu anomnyaka owodwa ophakeme athambekele ekwenzeni kangcono kuma-playoffs, futhi ukuboniswa okuqinile ku-postseason yangaphambilini kuvame ukuxhumana nempumelelo yesikhathi esizayo. Womabili amaphethini akhomba futhi isipiliyoninjengempahla ebalulekile ekuphishekeleni ubuqhawe.
Manje ake sibhekisise ukuthi imodeli eyenziwa ngayo Ukubikezela izingqwele ezintathu zokugcina ze-NBA:
Imodeli ebikezelwe kahle amabili kwabathathu bokugcina I-NBA Champions. Okuwukuphela kwe-miss bekungu-2023, lapho ithanda Ama-Milwaukee Bucks . Leso sikhathi, iMilwaukee yayinerekhodi elijwayelekile lesizini elijwayelekile ngo-58-24 (.707), kodwa a isikhubazo Ku-Giannis Antetokounmpo kulimaze i-planeff run. Amabhulukwe aqedwe ngo-4-1 emzuliswaneni wokuqala nguMiami Lishisa, owaqhubeka nokufinyelela ama-fassels – ukuphuma kwe-postseason okumangazayo nokudumazayo kwaphezulu kwe-milwaukee, owayeseshilo umqhudelwano nje eminyakeni emibili edlule.
2025 playoffs predictions
Ngale playoffs ezayo engama-2025, imodeli iyabikezela Boston Celtics ukubuyela emuva emuva, nge Okc na- Iqhubu lamanjeeduze ngemuva.
Njengoba unikezwe isikhathi sabo esijwayelekile (61-211, imbewu yesibili empumalanga) nokuthi bangabampetha obusabekayo, ngivame ukuvuma. Bayahlangana ukusebenza kwamanjene- Impumelelo yakamuva ye-Playoff.
Noma kunjalo, njengoba sonke sazi, kukhona okungenzeka kwezemidlalo – futhi sizothola impendulo yangempela ngasekupheleni kukaJuni.
Iziphetho
Le phrojekthi ikhombisa ukuthi ukufunda kanjani umshini kungasetshenziswa kanjani ezindaweni eziyinkimbinkimbi, ezinamandla njengezemidlalo. Usebenzisa i-Dataset Spanning ethatha amashumi amane eminyaka yomlando we-basketball, imodeli yakwazi ukumbule amaphethini anenjongo ekutholeni impumelelo ye-playoff. Ngaphandle kwesibikezelo, amathuluzi anjengobubi asivumela ukuba sihumushe izinqumo zemodeli futhi siqonde kangcono izici eziba nomthelela empumelelweni ye-postseason.
Enye yezinselelo ezinkulu kule nkinga iyabalwa ukulimala. Bangakwazi kabusha kabusha umhlaba we-playoff – ikakhulukazi lapho bethinta abadlali bezinkanyezi ngesikhathi sokudlala noma sekwephuzile ngesikhathi esijwayelekile. Ngokufanelekile, singafaka umlando wokulimala kanye nemininingwane yokutholakala ku-akhawunti engcono yalokhu. Ngeshwa, idatha evulekile futhi ehlelekile evulekile kulolu daba- ikakhulukazi e-granurarity edingekayo ukuze kumodeli – kunzima ukuvela. Ngenxa yalokhu, lokhu kuhlale kungenye yezindawo eziyimpumputhe ezingeyona into: Iphatha wonke amaqembu ngamandla aphelele, okuvame ukungabi njalo.
Ngenkathi kungekho modeli engabikezela isiyaluyalu ngokuphelele nokungadeli kwemidlalo, lokhu kuhlaziya kukhombisa ukuthi izindlela eziqhutshwa ngedatha zingasondela. Njengoba ama-playoffs angama-2025 avela, kuzojabulisa ukubona ukuthi izibikezelo zibambe kanjani – nokuthi yini okumangazayo umdlalo osagcina usesitolo.
Ngihlala ngitholakala eziteshini zami (I-LinkedIn na- Umuthi othile kiki).
Ngiyabonga ngokunaka kwakho! 👏
Uhlobo lwemotolu I-Speranza Pastorello
