Izinganekwane vs. Idatha: Ngabe i-apula ngosuku ligcina udokotela engekho?
Ukuqalisa
“Imali ayikwazi ukuthenga injabulo.” “Awukwazi ukwahlulela incwadi ngesembozo sayo.” “I-apula ngosuku ligcina udokotela engekho.”
Cishe uzwe la mazwi kaningana, kepha empeleni bayabambelela lapho sibheka imininingwane? Kulolu chungechunge lwendatshana, ngifuna ukuthatha izinganekwane / amazwibela athandwayo bese ngizivivinya kusetshenziswa idatha yangempela yomhlaba.
Singaqinisekisa amaqiniso athile angalindelekile, noma sikhiphe izinkolelo ezithandwayo. Ngethemba ukuthi, noma kunjalo sizothola ukuqonda okusha emhlabeni osizungezile.
I-hypothesis
“I-apula ngosuku ligcina udokotela engekho”: Ngabe kukhona ubufakazi bangempela bokusekela lokhu?
Uma inganekwane iyiqiniso, kufanele silindele a Ukuhlangana okungekuhle phakathi kokusetshenziswa kwe-Apple nge-capita kanye nodokotela vakashela nge-capita ngayinye . Ngakho-ke, okuthe xaxa kusebenza ezweni, udokotela ombalwa evakashela abantu okufanele badinga.
Ake sibheke imininingwane futhi sibone ukuthi izinombolo zithini ngempela.
Ukuhlola ubudlelwano phakathi kokudla kanye nokuvakasha kukadokotela
Ake siqale ngesheke elilula lokuxhumanisa phakathi kokusetshenziswa kwe-Apple nge-capita kanye nodokotela vakashela nge-capita ngayinye.
Imithombo yedatha
Imininingwane ivela:
Njengoba ukutholakala kwedatha kuyahlukahluka ngonyaka, 2017 kukhethwe njengoba kuhlinzekelwe kakhulu ngokwesibalo samazwe. Kodwa-ke, imiphumela ayiguquguquki kuyo yonke eminye iminyaka.
Ukubona ubudlelwano
Ukubona ngeso lengqondo ukuthi ukusetshenziswa okuphezulu kwe-apula kuhlotshaniswa nokuvakasha okumbalwa kodokotela, siqala ngokubheka a hlakaza uzungu ngentambo yokubuyisa.
Isakhiwo sokubuyisa sibonisa a ukuxhumeka okungalungile kakhuluokusho ukuthi emazweni lapho abantu bedla khona ama-apula amaningi, kunokuthambekela okungabonakali okubonakalayo ukuze ube nokuvakasha kodokotela okuphansi.
Ngeshwa, inkambiso ibuthakathaka kakhulu kangangokuba ayinakucatshangelwa -zwakala.
I-Ols Regression
Ukuhlola lobu budlelwano ngokwezibalo, sigijima a Ukubuyiselwa komugqa (ama-Ols)lapho udokotela evakashela nge-capita nge-capita eguquguqukayo ehlukile futhi ukusetshenziswa kwe-apula nge-capita okuguquguqukayo okuzimele.
Imiphumela iqinisekisa ukuthi i-SISTLEPLOT ESIPHILA:
- Le khasi I-coefflicraefnt etholakalayo yokusetshenziswa kwe-Apple Is -0.0107okusho ukuthi noma kunomthelela, kunjalo Kuncane kakhulu.
- Le khasi I-P-VALUE i-0.860 (86%)ngaphezu kokubaluleka kokubaluleka okujwayelekile kwe 5%.
- Le khasi Inani le-R˚ licishe libe zerookusho ukusetshenziswa kwe-Apple kuchaza cishe akukho kokuhlukahluka ekuvakasheni kukadokotela.
Lokhu akusho ngokuqinile ukuthi abukho ubuhlobo, kodwa kunalokho thina ayikwazi ukufakazela eyodwa enedatha etholakalayo. Kungenzeka ukuthi noma yimuphi umphumela wangempela mncane kakhulu ukuthola, ukuthi ezinye izinto esingazifaki sidlala indima enkulu, noma leyo mininingwane ayibonisi kahle ubudlelwano.
Ukulawula ama-Confounders
Ngabe senziwe? Hhayi impela. Kuze kube manje, sihlolile kuphela ubudlelwano obuqondile phakathi kokudla kwe-Apple kanye nokuvakasha kukadokotela.
Njengoba sekushiwo, ezinye izinto eziningi zingathonya ukuguquguquka zombili eziguquguqukayo, ngokufihla ubuhlobo beqiniso noma ukudala okwenziwe.
Uma sibheka legrafu yokubamba:
Sicabanga ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-apula kuthinta ngqo ukuvakasha kukadokotela. Kodwa-ke, ezinye izinto ezifihliwe kungenzeka zidlale. Uma singenzi ukubaphindisela, siyazibeka engcupheni Ukwehluleka ukuthola ubuhlobo bangempela Uma umuntu ekhona.
Isibonelo esaziwayo lapho okuguquguqukayo kuboniswa khona kuvela ocwaningweni nguMesmerli (2012), okwathola ukuhlangana okuthokozisayo phakathi kokusetshenziswa kweChocolate nge-Capita nenani lamaLobel Laureates.
Ngakho-ke, kuzoqala ukudla ushokoledi omningi kusisiza ukuwina umklomelo kaNobel? Cishe cha. Ukuchazwa okungenzeka ukuthi i-GDP nge-capita ngayinye yayingumfana. Lokho kusho ukuthi amazwe acebile athambekele ekusetshenzisweni kwe-chocolate ephakeme kanye nokuwina kwabawinile kakhulu uNobel. Ubudlelwano obubonwe belungeke bungasekho ngenxa ye-Factor efihliwe (edidayo).
Into efanayo kungenzeka ukuthi kwenzeka kithi. Kungahle kube nokudideka okuguqukayo okuthonya ukusetshenziswa kwe-apula kanye nodokotela, okwenza kube nzima ukubona ubudlelwano bangempela uma umuntu ekhona.
Ababili ababalulekile ababalulekile okufanele bacabangele I-GDP nge-capita ngayinye na- iminyaka engaphakathi. Amazwe acebile anezinhlelo ezingcono zezempilo kanye namaphethini ahlukile wokudla, kanye nabantu asebekhulile bavame ukuvakashela odokotela kaningi futhi kungenzeka babe nemikhuba ehlukile yokudla.
Ukuze silawule lokhu, sishintsha imodeli yethu ngokwazisa lezi zinto zokuphumula:
Imithombo yedatha
Imininingwane ivela:
I-OLS Regression (Nama-Confounders)
Ngemuva kokulawula i-GDP nge-capita ngayinye ne-Median Age, sisebenzisa umngcwabo amaningi wokuhlola ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-apula kunemiphumela enengqondo ekuvakasheni kukadokotela.
Imiphumela iqinisekisa esikubonile ngaphambili:
- Le khasi I-coefflicraefnt etholakalayo yokusetshenziswa kwe-Apple inqobe incane kakhulu (-0.0100)okusho noma yimuphi umphumela ongaba khona awunakwa.
- Le khasi I-P-VALUE (85.5%) isephakeme kakhulu, kude nokubaluleka kwezibalo.
- Thina namanje akwazi ukwenqaba i-hypothesis ye-nullokusho ukuthi asinabufakazi obuqinile bokusekela umbono wokuthi ukudla ama-apula amaningi kuholela ekuvakasheni kwadokotela okumbalwa.
Okufanayo nangaphambilini, lokhu akusho lokho Abukho ubudlelwano obukhonakodwa kunalokho lokho Asikwazi ukufakazela eyodwa kusetshenziswa idatha etholakalayo. Kungenzeka ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi umphumela wangempela mncane kakhulu ukuthola noma ukuthi kunezinye izici esingakazifaki.
Ukuqashelwa okukodwa okuthokozisayo, nokho, ukuthi i-GDP nge-capita ngayinye ibuye ikhombise Abukho ubuhlobo obukhulu Ngokuvakasha kukadokotela, njengoba inani lakhona lingu-0.668 (66.8%), okukhombisa ukuthi asikwazanga ukuthola kwimininingwane echaza ngengcebo ekusetshenzisweni kwezempilo.
Ngokolunye uhlangothi, Iminyaka Ephakathi ibonakala ihambisana kakhulu nokuvakasha kukadokotelangenani le-p-0.001 (0.1%) kanye ne-coefficient evumayo (0.4952). Lokhu kusikisela lokho abantu abadala bavame ukuvakashela odokotela kaningiempeleni akumangazi ngempela uma sicabanga ngakho!
Ngakho-ke ngenkathi sithola ukwesekwa kwenganekwane ye-Apple, imininingwane yembula ubudlelwane obuthakazelisayo phakathi kokuguga nokunakekelwa kwempilo.
Iminyaka Emaphakathi → Ukuvakashela udokotela
Imiphumela evela ku-Ols Regression ibonise ubudlelwano obuqinile phakathi kweminyaka ephakathi nendawo kanye nokuvakasha kukadokotela, futhi ukubona lokho okungezansi kufakazela lo mkhuba.
Kukhona umkhuba ophakeme ophakeme, okukhombisa lokho Amazwe anezindawo zabantu asebekhulile athambekele ekuvakasheni okwengeziwe kudokotela nge-capita ngayinye.
Njengoba sibheka kuphela ubudala be-Median kanye nokuvakasha kukadokotela lapha, umuntu angaphikisana nokuthi i-GDP nge-capita ngayinye ingaba isonto, inethonya zombili. Kodwa-ke, ama-Ols Regression adlule akhombisa ukuthi noma ngabe i-GDP ifakiwe kwimodeli, lobu budlelwano buhlala buqinile futhi bubaluleke ngokwezibalo.
Lokhu kusikisela lokho Ubudala obuphakathi buyisici esibalulekile ekuchazeni umehluko ekuvakasheni kukadokotela kuwo wonke amazweezimele ze-GDP.
Uhlobo lweshushana → Ukusetshenziswa kwe-apula
Ngenkathi engahlobene ngokuqondile nokuvakasha kukadokotela, okutholakele kwesibili ngemuva kokuthola ubudlelwano phakathi I-GDP nge-capita ngayinye nokusetshenziswa kwe-apula.
Enye incazelo engenzeka ukuthi amazwe acebile anokufinyelela okungcono kwimikhiqizo emisha. Okunye okungenzeka ukuthi isimo sezulu kanye ne-geography kudlala indima, ngakho-ke kungaba amazwe amaningi aphezulu we-GDP atholakala ezifundeni ezinomkhiqizo oqinile we-apula, okwenza ama-apula atholakale futhi angabizi kakhulu futhi angabizi.
Vele, ezinye izinto zingathonya lobu budlelwano, kepha ngeke simbele ujule lapha.
Isaphulula sibonisa a Ukuhlangana okuvumayo: nga- I-GDP nge-capita inyuka, ukusetshenziswa kwe-apula nakho kuvame ukukhuphuka. Kodwa-ke, uma kuqhathaniswa nobudala obuphakathi kanye nokuvakasha kukadokotela, lo mkhuba ukhona -ngenabuthakathakangokuhlukahluka okuningi kwidatha.
I-OLS iqinisekisa ubudlelwano: nge-coefficient e-0.2257 ye-GDP nge-capita ngayinye, singalinganisa ukwanda okungama-0,23 kg ekusetshenzisweni kwe-apula nge- $ 1,000 ku-GDP ngayinye.
I-3.8% P-VAUS isivumela ukuthi senqabe i-hypothesis ye-null. Ngakho-ke ubudlelwano bubaluleke ngokwezibalo. Kodwa-ke, inani le-R˚ (0.145) liphansi kakhulu, ngakho-ke ngenkathi i-GDP ichaza ngokuhlukahluka kokusetshenziswa kwe-Apple, ezinye izinto eziningi okungenzeka zinikela.
Ukugcina
Isisho siya:
“I-apula ngosuku ligcina udokotela engekho,”
Kepha ngemuva kokufaka le nsumansumane evivinyweni nedatha yomhlaba wangempela, imiphumela ibukeka ingahambelani naleli zwi. Eminyakeni eminingana, imiphumela yayingaguquguquki: Abukho ubudlelwane obunengqondo phakathi kokudla kwe-apula kanye nokuvakasha kukadokotela kwaqhamuka, noma ngemuva kokulawula abathile. Kubukeka sengathi ama-apula awodwa akwanele ukugcina udokotela engekho.
Kodwa-ke, lokhu akukuvumeli ngokuphelele umbono wokuthi ukudla ama-apula amaningi kunganciphisa ukuvakasha kukadokotela. Idatha yokubuka, noma ngabe silawula kahle kangakanani ama-confounders, awusoze afakazele ngokugcwele noma aphikise ukukhathazeka.
Ukuthola impendulo enembile ngokwezibalo, nokubeka zonke izitholi ezithile ezisezingeni lokuba se-granurarity okungenzeka ukuthi kungokwenzelwe umuntu, sizodinga ukuqhuba a Ukuhlolwa kwe-A / B.
Esivivinyweni esinjalo, ababambiqhaza babebelwe ngokungahlelwanga emaqenjini amabili, ngokwesibonelo umuntu adla inani elinqunyelwe lama-apula nsuku zonke kanti elinye ligwema apula. Ngokuqhathanisa ukuvakasha kukadokotela ngokuhamba kwesikhathi phakathi kwalawa maqembu amabili, singanquma ukuthi ngabe kukhona umehluko phakathi kwabo aqhamuka, unikeze ubufakazi obunamandla bokuthi kwenziwe nge-causal.
Ngenxa yezizathu ezisobala, ngakhetha ukungayitholi leyo ndlela. Ukuqasha isixuku sababambiqhaza kuzobiza, futhi ngokuphoqa abantu ukuthi bagweme ama-apula wesayensi angabazeka.
Kodwa-ke, sathola amaphethini athokozisayo. Isibikezeli esinamandla sokuvakasha kukadokotela kwakungeyona ukusetshenziswa kwe-apula, kepha ubudala be-Median: Inani labantu asebekhulile, abantu abavame kakhulu ukubona udokotela.
Okwamanje, I-GDP ikhombise ukuxhumeka okuthambile kokusetshenziswa kwe-apulakungenzeka ngoba amazwe acebile afinyelela kangcono umkhiqizo omusha, noma ngoba izifunda ezikhula nge-apula zivame ukuba ngcono kakhulu.
Ngakho-ke, ngenkathi singeke siqinisekise inganekwane yasekuqaleni, singanikeza inkondlo encane, kodwa I-Data-Backed Uhlobo:
“Umncane ugcina udokotela engekho.”
Uma ukujabulele lokhu kuhlaziya futhi ufuna ukuxhumana, ungangithola ku-LinkedIn.
Ukuhlaziywa okugcwele kuyatholakala kule nobhabhu ku-GitHub.
Imithombo yedatha
Ukusetshenziswa kwezithelo kwezithelo: Inhlangano yokudla nezolimo yeNhlangano Yezizwe (2023) – ngokusebenza okukhulu ngumhlaba wethu kwidatha. “Ukusetshenziswa kwe-capita kwama-apula – i-FAO” [dataset]. Inhlangano yokudla nezolimo yeZizwe Ezihlangene, “ezilinganisweni zokudla: ezilinganisweni zokudla (-2013, indlela yakudala kanye nenani labantu)”; Inhlangano Yezolimo Nezolimo yeNhlangano Yezizwe, “Izilinganiso Zokudla: Izilinganiso Zokudla (2010-)” [original data]. Inelayisense ngaphansi kwe-CC nge-4.0.
Ukuvakasha Udokotela: OECD (2024), ukubonisana, i-URL (kufinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 22, 2025). Inelayisense ngaphansi kwe-CC nge-4.0.
I-GDP nge-capita ngayinye: I-World Bank (2025) – Ngokucutshungulwa okuncane ngumhlaba wethu kwidatha. I- “GDP nge-capita ngayinye – I-World Bank – Ku-Constant 2021 International $” [dataset]. I-World Bank, “Izinkomba Zokuthuthukiswa Kwezwe Lomhlaba” [original data]. Kubuyiselwe ngoJanuwari 31, 2025 kusuka kulayisense ngaphansi kwe-CC nge-4.0.
Iminyaka Ephakathi: UN, amathemba abantu emhlabeni (2024) – acutshungulwe ngumhlaba wethu kwidatha. “Ubudala obuphakathi, Ukuqagela Okuphakathi – UN WPP” [dataset]. I-United Nations, “Amathemba Ezwe Lomhlaba” [original data]. Inelayisense ngaphansi kwe-CC nge-4.0.
Zonke izithombe, ngaphandle kokuthi ziphawulwe ngenye indlela, zingumbhali.
